Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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064 FXUS62 KTBW 080731 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 331 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 331 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024 Today and Thursday, high pressure will dominate the weather pattern, with broad ridging building in over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida Peninsula, and a strong surface ridge extending from the Atlantic across central Florida. This stacked ridging will favor warm and dry conditions, with afternoon high temperatures running several degrees above normal, and rain free conditions holding. Apart from the heat, the main weather concern will be for some patchy fog this morning over the Nature Coast. On Friday, a shortwave trough will swing through the northeastern US, followed quickly by another shortwave Saturday night and Sunday. At the surface, this will result in a cold front pushing into northern Florida Friday and temporarily stalling out, then getting a secondary push Saturday and Saturday night to clear the forecast area. This will cause increasing rain chances early Friday through Saturday morning, then drier air fills in for the rest of the weekend. The frontal boundaries will also moderate temperatures. Monday and Tuesday, another shortwave will eject out of the southern plains and into the southeastern US, allowing a surface low to develop over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Southerly low level flow ahead of this system will result in building moisture and increasing rain chances Monday and Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 331 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024 Some isolated MVFR ceilings over southwest Florida are expected to clear out by around 10z. Then, mostly VFR conditions are forecast to continue for the next 24 hours at area terminals. Some patchy fog will be possible around sunrise this morning, but is expected to remain north of area terminals. && .MARINE... Issued at 331 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024 Atlantic high pressure will ridge into the eastern Gulf of Mexico through Thursday night, with south and southeast flow less than 15 knots, turning onshore with the afternoon seabreeze. Dry air will prevent significant rain chances. The ridge will shift south Friday through the weekend as a couple of fronts push southeast into the waters. This will result in winds briefly increasing on Friday to around Exercise Caution levels and turning to westerly and then northerly. Rain chances will also increase on Friday and Saturday with the frontal passages. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 331 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024 Relative humidity will drop to near critically low levels this afternoon. Even drier air is forecast to fill in on Thursday afternoon with a few hours of relative humidity percentages below 35 expected over the interior. However, wind speeds are not forecast to be fast enough to cause Red Flag conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 90 77 89 77 / 0 0 0 10 FMY 93 74 91 75 / 10 0 0 0 GIF 96 73 96 74 / 10 10 0 0 SRQ 88 74 88 76 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 93 69 92 71 / 0 0 0 10 SPG 88 78 87 79 / 0 0 0 10 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 5 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ Fleming