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000
FNUS75 KTFX 121459
FWSTFX

Spot Forecast for Middleman 40...USFS
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
859 AM MDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 MDT on April 15.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Winds on Monday morning will start off out of the southwest at 5 to 10 mph
closer to the river and 5 to 15 mph further upslope. Morning wind gusts will
be in the 10 to 20 mph range between 6 AM and 9 AM and between 15 and 20 mph
from 9 AM to 12 PM. Winds will start to increase and shift to out of the west
after 12 PM with 10 to 20 mph sustained and gusts up to 30 mph. With regards
to moisture, there will be a less than 15% chance of rain before noon, which
will be mainly confined to the higher elevations away from the burn site. After
12 PM, rain chances increase up to 30-40% and after 6 PM there is a 40-50%
chance of rain near the burn site. The chance of wetting rain will remain low
through most of the day and really start to increase after 6 PM as more
widespread showers develop.


.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Chance of rain in
                    the afternoon.
CWR.................5 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....62-67.
Min humidity........30-35 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......West winds around 10 mph increasing to 15 to 20
                    mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......7500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 20 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

.MONDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Chance of rain
                    through the night. Chance of snow overnight.
CWR.................25 percent.
LAL.................
Min temperature.....32-37.
Max humidity........63-68 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......West winds 15 to 20 mph.
Mixing height.......1500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 20 mph.
Haines Index........

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of snow
                    in the morning, then snow likely in the
                    afternoon.
CWR.................35 percent.
LAL.................
Max temperature.....46-51.
Min humidity........35-40 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
Mixing height.......9000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 15 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Glinskas
Requested by...Lewis Tafelmeyer
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2410511.0/TFX
.DELDT 04/12/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL lewis.tafelmeyer@usda.gov