371
FXUS62 KCAE 042350
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
750 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms have moved into the area and will
continue through early next week with showers and thunderstorms
possible each day. Dry conditions should prevail for midweek,
with a return of showers and storms possible again by Friday.
Expect well above normal temperatures each day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Upper impulse will slowly track from northern/central GA ENE
across northern/central SC. Latest guidance indicates
convective development in the near term over the CSRA, then
tracking to the ENE over portions of the central and northern
Midlands through the overnight period. Severe threat low due to
low DCAPE values, high WBZ heights, minimal deep layer shear and
only weak instability. Locally heavy rain possible though due to
slow movement and possible training. Lows in the 60`s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Sunday and Sunday night: An upper shortwave is forecast to
continue trekking eastward through the day Sunday and is
expected to be offshore by Sunday night. At the surface, high
pressure offshore is expected to drift eastward, but still aid
in keeping plenty of moisture in the area, with PWAT values
around 1.5". A relative low in shower and thunderstorm activity
is forecast due to the shortwave passing to our east. However,
a weaker shortwave is anticipated to move through the region,
resulting in scattered shower and thunderstorms, particularly in
the afternoon. With weaker support, we`re not expecting the
activity to be as widespread as today or Monday. Temperatures
are expected to be near average once again during the day, but
relatively warm overnight.

Monday and Monday night: Another shortwave is forecast to move
across the area on Monday. This shortwave looks to be a bit more
pronounced, leading to an uptick in shower and thunderstorm
activity for the day, especially in the afternoon and evening.
The upper air dynamics are anticipated to be similar to today,
limiting the severe threat. PWATs are anticipated to increase
some again, which could lead to locally heavy rainfall again.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The upper shortwave is expected to move out of the area Tuesday,
taking the precipitation along with it. That said some scattered
showers are possible during the morning before they exit the
area. Broad ridging then builds back over the area, which will
aid in a midweek warm up. Temperatures are forecast to warm to
well above average by Wednesday and Thursday. A larger scale
trough is anticipated to move toward and through the region for
the end of the week, bringing a cold front along with it. Model
guidance does differ in the timing of its passage, which would
affect how warm we get on Friday. Regardless of the timing,
chances of precipitation returns with this system.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Variable conditions in showers and thunderstorms with restrictions
likely for much of the TAF period.

Showers and a few thunderstorms have mainly been west of the
terminals this morning and are now developing across the entire
area. Have update the TAFs to include the developing convective
activity through the evening hours. Cigs with the showers and
thunderstorms will lower to 1 to 1.5 kft with vsbys lowering to
1 to 2SM as showers have been efficient rain producers with
rainfall rates around 2 inches per hour. Convection will
diminish early tonight however with high amounts of low level
moisture expect stratus and fog to continue through the end of
the period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Fog and stratus possible through at least Monday with abundant
low level moisture in place. Showers and thunderstorms with
associated restrictions possible Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$