Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
095
FXUS62 KCAE 192312
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
712 PM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in tonight behind a cold front and
dominate the region through early Sunday. The next low pressure
system along with rain will arrive Sunday afternoon and remain
over the region into the middle of next week. Temperatures will
be near or below normal through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Cold front is now east of the cwa, with even drier air moving
into the region behind it. Winds remain strong and gusty behind
the front, then gusts may begin to diminish after sunset.

High pressure will build into the region and winds will relax a
bit, subsiding to around 5 to 10 mph after sunset. Despite the
cold advection and some radiational cooling, the winds will
remain strong enough to prevent optimal radiational cooling
conditions. Frost is not expected, even with temperatures
falling into the upper 30s to lower 40s across the region by
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will provide mostly clear skies and considerably
lighter winds than the past couple of days. N/NE winds late
Friday morning may gust up to 20 mph as the nocturnal low level
jet mixes down but will weaken throughout the day. Without the
warm advection and downslope winds seen over the past few days
high temperatures should be closer to guidance, in the upper 60s
to low 70s. Light winds overnight and clear skies will allow
for moderate radiational cooling. Guidance suggests lows in the
upper 30s to lower 40s. Light winds should help limit frost
concerns in our typically cooler locations. Expect similar
weather Saturday with highs slightly below normal and light
winds. Increasing cloud cover Saturday night will keep lows in
the mid to upper 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A low pressure system will move across the Gulf Coast States
late this weekend and then up the East Coast early next week. SE
flow will bring Atlantic moisture, and the chance for rain,
into the forecast area Sunday night through early Tuesday.
Rainfall may be moderate at times given the strong moisture
transport. Model guidance has been trending towards a more
northward track of the surface low. This could bring warmer
temperatures and a chance for thunderstorms to the southern FA
Monday, although confidence in thunderstorms is low at this
time. Temperatures will generally be near or below normal during
the long term with upper level troughing over the region.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the 24hr forecast period.

Front is east of all taf sites, and winds are shifting to a
northwesterly direction. Winds will continue to diminish after
sunset. Overnight winds will remain around 10 knots most
locations but then will pick up again shortly after sunrise
Friday with some gusts to 20 knots possible until the afternoon
when speeds will diminish. Wind directions will shift to a
northeasterly direction after midnight. Wind and dry air
expected to preclude any fog/stratus concerns late tonight/early
Friday morning.


.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Dry air should preclude restrictions Friday night into Saturday.
Increasing moisture and chance of precipitation possible by
late Sunday into early next week.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.