Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 260558 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1258 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018

.UPDATE...
Please see the 06Z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions continue early this morning at area terminals. An area
of convection over central Texas is currently moving southward.
Radar trends remain fairly steady, while IR satellite trends show a
slight warming in cloud tops. For now, we will not mention any
convection in our TAFs and continue to monitor radar and satellite
trends. Mid and high level clouds from this area of convection will
move into the region and this may inhibit low cloud development early
this morning. Based on this and recent model data, we will keep the
forecast VFR through the forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 838 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018/

UPDATE...
Isolated severe storm moving into San Saba county mid evening. The
storm is on track to clip Llano county and has necessitated an update
to the PoP/WX forecast for this evening. The storm is shown by the
HRRR to gradually weaken with loss of daytime heating/increasing
convective inhibition as it clips the far northern CWA and should
eventually dissipates around 11 PM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night)...
All is fairly quiet across South-Central Texas at the present hour
with just some fair weather cumulus clouds around the region. Showers
and isolated storms have remained well east of the CWA and think the
bulk or if not all of the activity will remain out of the CWA this
afternoon. Have left the mention of isolated thunder with a 10 PoP
through the afternoon hours for the eastern counties. The focus then
shifts to a complex of storms northeast of Dallas that continues to
slide to the southeast. This main complex will remain well to our
northeast and am not expecting any direct impacts from it. However,
the past few runs of the HRRR develops some storms along the western
end of the outflow boundary west of Fort Worth around 4 PM. The
northwest flow aloft pattern we are in would eventually bring any
storms in this area south to near Williamson County this evening.
Have kept PoPs below 15 percent for now, but did include a mention of
isolated thunderstorms for Williamson County in the 00z-03z time
frame. Latest visible satellite imagery does show from agitated cu
in the area the HRRR develops convection and this increased
confidence slightly to warrant a mention of the iso thunder. The
forecast will likely be updated closer to 00z to either increase or
decrease PoPs depending on how the potential storms evolve. If a
storm does develop and make it to the CWA, it could be strong.

Otherwise, tonight will be warm with lows in the 70s for much of the
CWA with upper 60s possible for the Hill Country. Have a rain-free
forecast for the remainder of the short-term forecast as the upper
ridge continues to amplify and move closer to our area from the west.
Highs tomorrow will be quite warm, especially for the western CWA
where highs above 100 are expected. Middle to upper 90s can be
expected for the eastern counties. Lows tomorrow night will be very
similar to tonight.

LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
The long-term forecast will remain dominated by the upper level
ridge. Hot and dry weather can be expected with highs in the upper
90s to 104 degree range each day with the higher values in the
southwestern CWA. The GFS has come more into an agreement with the
ECMWF for our area as south/southeast winds in the lower levels of
the atmosphere keep temperatures from getting too out of hand.
Otherwise, no rain is expected in the long-term under the ridge, Welcome
to Summer 2018.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              96  73  96  74  97 /  10  -    0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  95  72  95  73  96 /  10  -    0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     95  71  96  73  96 /  -    0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            95  71  96  72  95 /  10  -    0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport          104  74 103  75 103 /   0   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        95  72  95  73  95 /  10  -    0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             98  70  99  73  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        96  71  97  73  97 /  -    0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   94  72  94  73  95 /  10  -    0   0  -
San Antonio Intl Airport       97  72  98  74  99 /  -    0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           97  73  98  74  99 /  -    0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...24
Synoptic/Grids...TB3


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