Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 222051

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
151 PM PDT Thu Mar 22 2018

Continued atmospheric river influence will continue over the area
through Friday morning. A brief break from the precipitation will
take place on Friday afternoon and into Saturday morning. Then
chances for light precipitation will increase by late afternoon
Saturday as a low pressure system moves through the region.
Ridging will then begin to move into the area on Monday bringing
warmer temperatures and drying conditions well into the middle of
next week.


.DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development and heavy rain remain the
main concerns in the short-term, or through this evening. Latest
radar images show a line of heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms
currently moving over Merced and Mariposa Counties along the cold
front pushing into this area. Other heavy showers are also
developing to the south towards Kings Canyon and Sequoia National
Parks. Another batch of moderate showers are moving towards
western Fresno County, including near Coalinga. Some significant
rises in creeks were enough to cause minor flooding in the hills
northwest of Coalinga, such as Los Gatos Creek since this morning.
The cold front will continue to progress southward over Central
California through this evening, and the threat for heavy rain and
thunderstorms will continue, especially along this boundary. In
addition, any areas ahead of the front where cloud cover has
cleared, including much of the western and southern sides of the
San Joaquin Valley can expect additional shower development along
with isolated strong thunderstorms. Flooding near and over burn
scars due to recent wildfires will continue to be a concern
through this evening. Also, rapid rises in creeks and rivers are
expected, especially in areas of heavy rain that could fall over
areas that have already received abundant amounts since last night
and at earlier times with this ongoing storm. Showers are
expected into Friday morning over much of the region, but remain
confined over the mountain areas in the afternoon. The Storm
Prediction Center (NWS SPC) continues to show a marginal risk of
severe thunderstorms in the San Joaquin Valley and into the Sierra
Nevada foothills through this evening, per their latest Mesoscale
Convective Discussion. Please note we have made no significant
changes to the forecast beyond tonight due to the ongoing


Mountain obscuration due to clouds/precipitation in the Sierra
Nevada and Tehachapi Range, and MVFR/IFR conditions in low ceilings
and precipitation will prevail through tonight, mainly thru 12Z
Friday. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail throughout the
central California interior during the next 24 hours.





The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.


.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM PDT this evening CAZ093>097.

Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening ABOVE 8000



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