Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 221649 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1149 AM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

Updated for 18Z aviation discussion


18Z TAF discussion:

VFR conditions are expected through tomorrow although clouds will
be gradually on the increase, especially north of the I-20
corridor. Any ceilings should be based around or above 10 kft and
no significant precipitation is expected. Light and somewhat
variable surface winds across the region this afternoon through
tonight will transition to the south tomorrow, and even could be a
bit gusty around GLH/GWO tomorrow afternoon. /BB/



Update discussion for today:

Expecting some mid to high layer clouds to start increasing a bit
in northern zones through the afternoon, but in general skies
today will be sunny across the forecast area with winds light.
Despite the chilly start (especially in eastern zones where at
least patchy frost was observed), expect temperatures to rise
quickly through the morning and midday hours with highs touching
70 degrees in many central and western zones. Forecasted maximum
temperatures were increased slightly over the previous forecast,
but otherwise the expectations for today look on track. /BB/

Prior discussion below:

Today through Tonight: Latest rap and satellite imagery showed an
amplified ridge over the Rockies which was providing northwest flow
to the region. On the surface a ridge of high pressure was centered
over the Midsouth region. Readings prior to dawn were in the middle
30s northeast to the middle 40s southwest. Expect areas of frost
across the northeast and eastern counties early where some readings
were approaching the lower 30s.  Otherwise high pressure will bring
another day of mostly sunny skies with highs a little more
seasonable with readings from the lower 60s northeast to near 70
southwest. With dewpoints mainly in the 30s minimum humidity will
dip down into the lower 30s. Light winds and recent rainfall will
limit fire danger issues. For tonight the surface ridge will move
east of the region which will bring some low level return by Friday.
Mid to high level clouds will move into the forecast area overnight
from the northwest. Lows for Thursday night will be in the 40s.

Friday through Wednesday night: Warmer than normal temperatures
return and moisture will continue to increase Friday ahead of a
shortwave and <1000mb low moving over the Central Plains. Models
remain in good agreement that Friday and Friday evening will be dry
but the chance of rain looks to return to our northwest zones before
sunrise Saturday. Both the shortwave and surface low weaken Saturday
as they track east across the Tennessee Valley and try to drop a
cold front into our CWA. The Canadian is a little farther north but
the GFS and ECMWF both agree that the cold front will stall near the
Interstate 20 corridor Sunday. The stalled front will lift back to
the north Monday in response to another surface low deepening over
the Central Plains as a large closed low drops south toward the
desert southwest. Coolest temperatures and greatest rain chances
Saturday through Monday will be carried across the northern half of
our CWA. Our southern half will be warmer than normal and mostly dry
through the period. Monday night through Wednesday night the large
closed low will slowly shift eastward. This will induce mid level
ridging downstream over the eastern CONUS and surface ridging that
will slip a backdoor cold front into our CWA Tuesday. The ECMWF is a
little farther east with an axis but the GFS and Canadian agree that
a prolonged period of moist southwesterly flow set up and lead to an
axis of significant heavy rainfall. This axis is currently expected
to remain to our west through Wednesday night but could shift into
our CWA by the time the closed low lifts out. Thus, a flash flooding
threat could develop across the ArkLaMiss by late next week. /22/


Jackson       70  45  76  57 /   0   0   0   1
Meridian      68  42  74  53 /   0   0   0   1
Vicksburg     72  46  77  58 /   0   0   0   6
Hattiesburg   70  41  76  54 /   0   0   0   2
Natchez       71  47  77  59 /   0   0   0   3
Greenville    68  47  75  58 /   0   0   0  14
Greenwood     66  48  74  57 /   0   1   0  11





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