432
FXUS64 KLCH 062010
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
310 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Low pressure is over plains this afternoon while a ridge is over
the Atlantic. Between these features, a southerly flow is keeping
gulf moisture in place locally. Even with ample moisture in
place, a lack of an upper disturbance and a more stable air mass
has allowed for a less active day across the region, finally.
With that said, a few showers and storms will still be possible
through the afternoon with daytime heating, and mainly from Cen LA
through the SE TX Lake.

The warm and humid air mass that is in place will linger through
the short term. Low temperatures will run around 10 degrees above
normal with highs around 5 above climo averages. Rain chances
Tuesday and Wednesday will be nearly nil. Conditions will be
breezy Tuesday and Wed afternoons with the pressure gradient
tightening a bit from Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Sunday)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

A cold front will be poised on our doorstep by Thursday morning.
Moisture will continue to increase in advance of the front, with
showers and storms developing near the boundary, aided by passing
disturbances aloft. The front will sag through the area late
Thursday into early Friday, with convection spreading south over the
area. The best chances are expected across our northern zones, from
the Lakes region into central LA. General rainfall amounts are
expected to remain below an inch, and at this time, forecast
soundings show enough dry air within the column and sufficient storm
motions to preclude a potential heavy rain threat. However, there
does appear a non-zero risk for some strong to severe storms, mainly
from late afternoon into the evening Thursday as soundings depict
steep midlevel lapse rates, decent deep layer shear and considerable
(mainly elevated) CAPEs.

The front will finally push through the area and off the coast by
Friday morning, with high pressure beginning to build over the
region in its wake. This will bring a nice airmass contrast after
some very warm and humid days, with highs in the lower 80s and lows
down to around 60 north and in the lower 60s south. Meanwhile,
dewpoints will fall from the low to middle 70s on Thursday to the
upper 50s to lower 60s by Friday.

The surface high is expected to slide east across the region into
the weekend, maintaining the generally seasonal temperatures.
Global models depict a somewhat active west to southwest flow
persisting over the region along with the potential for some low end
PoPs/QPF through the weekend, but none of the operational models
align regarding timing/placement of individual features.
The National Blend continues to advertise dry conditions inland,
with just some low PoPs over the coastal waters Saturday and Sunday.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Patchy MVFR ceilings continue to linger in the region early this
afternoon, however generally VFR conditions are anticipated for
the afternoon and early evening. Low ceilings will return as the
evening progresses. A few showers and storms will also be
possible, but mainly in vicinity of KAEX this afternoon. Winds
will be south to southeast and gusty at times through the
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 206 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

The onshore flow will remain in place into Friday. The pressure
gradient will tighten somewhat into Tuesday and Wednesday with
winds nearing 20 kts in the gulf waters by Wed PM.

A cold front will approach the region late in the week with winds
relaxing as this occurs. The front will move offshore Friday with
a period of offshore winds expected into Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  87  71  91 /  10  10   0   0
LCH  74  84  73  86 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  75  87  75  89 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  73  87  74  87 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...05