Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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000
FXUS65 KLKN 222144
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
244 PM PDT Sun Apr 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...A short wave moving across the region tonight will
trigger isolated early evening thunderstorms and scattered
showers, mostly across the northern portion of Nevada. High
pressure returns with a warming trend beginning on Tuesday with
warm spring days for the latter part of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday.

Shallow convective clouds have popped over the high terrain of
central/east central part of Nevada. Incoming short wave over
Oregon and nrn Calif moves across nrn NV overnight, interacting
with the convection firing ahead of the trough. Sufficient
dynamical lift for scattered showers over northeast NV with
embedded but isolated early evening thunder. Scattered showers
will end from the west as the trough pushes east overnight.

Some cooling is expected on Monday behind departing short wave,
but warming trend begins on Tuesday as amplified ridge covers the
interior West with sunny benign weather.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday night through Sunday.

Progression of closed upper level low over the eastern Pacific
will be the forecast challenge of the long term period. The
blended model approach provides the best forecast skill for this
scenario. For the Thursday, warming trend will be underway with
daytime temps well into the 70s, and some 80s in the lower
valleys.

Some cirrus clouds will be spreading across the Great Basin as
forecasting the track of the closed upper low becomes increasingly
difficult. At any rate, the air mass stays warm into Friday, but
warming trend will have reached its peak. The probability
increases that some short wave energy will rotate into the Great
Basin, either Saturday or Sunday, resulting in a slight chance of
showers on Saturday, but possibly hold off into Sunday. Until
next weekend with some forecast questions, warm spring days are
ahead.

&&

.AVIATION...Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
expected by 00Z this afternoon. Thunderstorm threat should end
around sunset, but scattered showers will move across northeast NV
overnight but end by 12Z. VCTS is expected at KEKO with showers as
possibly as far south as KELY. Localized outflow gusts to 40 kts
from nearby showers, virga shafts, and thunderstorms are possible
winds.

Mostly SKC conditions are expected across the region on Monday.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

88/88/88



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