Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 260518 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1218 AM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

VFR conditions will continue through the next 24 hours. A cold
front will move across the terminals late this afternoon resulting
in a strong north wind 20G30 knots. Wind speeds will remain up
through much of the evening before going light northerly after
midnight local time.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 223 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018/

The closed low that brought the abnormally cool and cloudy
conditions as well as showers and thunderstorms to the area
earlier today continues to push slowly to the southeast toward the
lower Mississippi Valley. As it does so dry isentropic downglide
is clearing skies across the forecast area from north to south. A
quiet, clear, and cold night is in store with lows pushing down
toward the 40F mark and likely into the 30s across the
southwestern Panhandle. Another upper trough is already entering
the Dakotas from Alberta and will drive another cold front with
reinforcing cool air into the forecast area on Thursday. Robust
surface pressure rises behind the front will lead to at least
breezy post-frontal conditions Thursday afternoon and evening,
possibly requiring a Wind Advisory. Cold advection behind the
front will result in another cold night Thursday with a frost or
light freeze not out of the question for the southwestern

A pattern change will occur once the latter trough passes into the
base of a long-wave trough over the eastern CONUS. Upper ridging
over the Rockies will translate eastward across the Plains during
the weekend while a closed low moves over the Pacific Northwest
then ejects across Montana on Monday. This evolution will see a
return to breezy south winds Saturday, also marking the onset of
low level moisture advection. With the moisture return and
southwesterly flow aloft in advance of the northwest upper low, a
dryline is expected to develop across eastern New Mexico Sunday,
shifting eastward each day through Tuesday. Models are painting
some precip along and east of the dryline. There is certainly
enough support at this time to maintain 20-30 percent precip
chances each of those days with chances shifting from west to east
with the advancing dryline.




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