Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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737
FXUS64 KMAF 220826
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
326 AM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

.DISCUSSION...
A large upper level storm system centered in the Mississippi
valley will slowly move east into the Tennessee and Ohio valley
the next few days. In its wake surface high pressure will be the
main influence with fair weather conditions expected through
Tuesday. Temperatures are expected to be below normal today
but will warm to above normal by Monday as the surface high
modifies and moves off to the east. By Tuesday temperatures are
expected to be much above normal as a lee surface low and low
level thermal ridge develop in west to northwest flow aloft.

An upper level low/trough digging across the plains will allow a
strong cold front to plunge south through the forecast area
Tuesday night. There will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday night through Wednesday night behind this front due to a
combination of prolonged mid level instability, enhanced lift from
an associated upper level jet and an increase in low level
moisture. Temperatures will be much below normal Wednesday behind
the front.

After Wednesday another upper level system is expected to dig
rapidly across the plains with another chance of showers and
thunderstorms expected Thursday and Thursday night.

Guidance diverges significantly on the forecast for Friday through
next Sunday. The ECMWF model keeps conditions dry with a stronger
upper ridge in place than the wetter GFS and Canadian model.
For now will maintain a continuing chance of precipitation these
days per superblend, but will not go as high as the blend is
indicating. Below normal temperatures were maintained for these
periods.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     74  49  82  57 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       75  49  85  53 /   0  10  10   0
Dryden                         78  55  85  59 /   0  10  10   0
Fort Stockton                  75  52  85  59 /   0  10  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 70  51  79  58 /   0  10  10   0
Hobbs                          72  47  81  53 /   0  10   0   0
Marfa                          71  45  81  49 /   0  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           74  50  83  59 /   0  10   0   0
Odessa                         74  51  84  59 /   0  10   0   0
Wink                           76  51  86  57 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

72/12



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