Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 251329
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
929 AM EDT Fri May 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level trough brings showers and storms on today. Unsettled
weather through the weekend with afternoon showers and storms.
High pressure and decent weather for Memorial Day, but more
unsettled conditions should return by mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 925 AM Friday...

No changes to the forecast this morning.

As of 645 AM Friday...

Just made a minor update to temperatures this morning based on
latest observations, otherwise forecast remains on track.

As of 145 AM Friday...

Really not too much of a change from the afternoon forecast
cycle. Still appears that a weak short wave will push through
from south to north this afternoon and evening. Only expecting
some scattered shower or storm activity with this feature, with
the most activity focused around max heating this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 217 AM Friday...

For Saturday, moisture advection continues under southerly flow as
suggested by models in the theta-e charts. Bufkit soundings suggest
an almost saturated column with a tall skinny CAPE feature with
equilibrium level up to 40,000 feet. PWATs will increase around 1.88
inches. Therefore, expect water loading with a poor shear
environment Saturday afternoon. Overall, scattered afternoon showers
and thunderstorms, some with brief heavy downpours, are expected to
develop. The SREF/NAM/ECMWF concord on increasing moisture and pcpn
activity.

Several upper level ripples of vorticity will cross the area through
at least Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms are likely during the
afternoons aided by the diurnal heating and abundant moisture
through the beginning of the week.

On Sunday, an air mass with tropical moisture will lift north and
northeast from the Gulf of Mexico into AL, TN, WV and KY. Models
show some disagreement on the actual track of the remnants of this
tropical system.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 217 AM Friday...

The remnants of a tropical system will gradually decay Monday.
The associated moisture and afternoon heating will produce
afternoon showers and storms.

A cold front will try to sink through Monday night into
Tuesday. Its timing could change as models do not resolve this
feature well. By mid to late week, remnants of the tropical
system pass by to our south, with additional rounds of showers
and thunderstorms. There will be plenty of moisture to work
with, and periods of heavy rain could occur. Flooding potential
will depend on the track of the system and how much rainfall is
accumulated from the showers and storms earlier in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 6455 AM Friday...

Mostly VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. There is
a chance for scattered afternoon showers or thunderstorms today
as a weak upper level disturbance passes the region. At this
time, it appears that shower activity will be most pronounced
across the southern forecast area and along the Eastern
Mountains.

Low level SE flow this morning pushing into to the Eastern
Mountains could bring some upslope stratocu to BKW, with a
brief period of MVFR ceilings, but flow is likely too weak for
this to extend into BKW

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR stratocu may get close to BKW for a
time early Friday morning. Some showers could bring brief restrictions
if they pass directly over a site this afternoon.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            FRI 05/25/18
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
No widespread IFR expected.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK/26
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MPK


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