Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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739
FNUS71 KBOX 221037
FWSBOX

Spot Forecast for Red Brook South...US FWS
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
637 AM EDT Tue May 22 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EDT on May 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Low pressure approaches from the Great Lakes today, spreading
showers across Southern New England this afternoon and tonight.
Drier air starts moving in Wednesday, but the airmass will remain
sufficiently unstable to allow a few widely scattered showers.

The minimum relative humidity will be 55 to 60 percent today. The
minimum relative humidity Wednesday will be 65 to 75 percent
along the South Coast.

Outlook Thursday through Monday...

Dry weather is on tap Thursday and Friday as high pressure builds
over the region. But as the high shifts southeast, moisture will
increase across the region through the Memorial Day weekend thus
the chance for showers. Temperatures Thursday through Monday will
be at or above normal.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers late in the afternoon. Rain showers
                    likely late in the afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent increasing to 22 percent late in the
                    afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 62.
Min humidity........67 percent.
Dewpoint............50.
Surface winds.......South winds 6 to 10 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 6 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......200-400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 7 to 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1300 knot-ft).
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................8.
Haines Index........4 to 5 OR or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.
CEILING (KFT).......25 decreasing to 9.0.

TIME (EDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........74  90  92  93  95  96  98  99
Weather cov.....                    CHC CHC LKY
Weather type....                    RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   20  20  20  20
Temp............60  61  61  61  61  60  60  59
Dewpoint........50  50  50  50  50  50  50  50
RH..............69  67  67  67  67  69  69  72
20 FT wind dir..SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..7   7   8   9   10  10  9   9
20 FT wind gust.9   10  12  12  13  13  12  12
Surface wnd dir.SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Surface wnd spd.7   7   8   9   10  10  9   9
Surface wnd gst.9   10  12  12  13  13  12  12
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.8   9   9   10  10  10  9   9
LVORI...........3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
ADI.............6   7   7   11  11  11  10  10
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
VRate kt-ft/10002   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
Ceiling (kft)...14  13  13  12  12  11  10  9.0

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Rain showers in the
                    evening, then chance of rain showers after
                    midnight. Patchy fog around midnight. Patchy
                    fog early in the morning.
CWR.................22 percent increasing to 90 percent until just
                    after midnight, then decreasing to 17 percent
                    early in the morning.
Min temperature.....Around 53.
Max humidity........93 percent.
Dewpoint............51.
Surface winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 9 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 9 mph.
Mixing height.......300-400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 7 to 10 mph shifting to the west 6 to 7
                    mph early in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1800 knot-ft).
LVORI...............5.
ADI.................8.
Haines Index........3 to 4 OR or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.
CEILING (KFT).......9.0 decreasing to 0.3.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........99  100 100 99  99  98  97  96  95  95  94  94
Weather cov.....LKY DEF DEF DEF LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............20  20  90  90  90  90  90  90  20  20  20  20
Temp............58  57  57  56  55  55  55  55  55  55  55  55
Dewpoint........50  50  50  51  51  52  52  53  53  53  53  53
RH..............75  77  77  83  86  90  90  93  93  93  93  93
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  W
20 FT wind spd..9   9   9   9   8   8   7   7   6   6   5   5
20 FT wind gust.12  10  10  10  12  12  10  8   7   7   6   6
Surface wnd dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  W
Surface wnd spd.9   9   9   9   8   8   7   7   6   6   5   5
Surface wnd gst.12  10  10  10  12  12  10  8   7   7   6   6
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   SE  SE  S   S   S   S   W   W
Transp wind spd.9   10  10  10  9   9   9   8   8   7   7   6
LVORI...........3   4   4   4   5   5   5   6   6   6   6   6
ADI.............10  11  9   9   8   8   6   5   5   5   5   4
Haines index....4   4   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
VRate kt-ft/10003   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   2   2   2
Ceiling (kft)...9.0 7.0 5.0 4.0 2.5 1.5 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent) then becoming partly
                    sunny (50-60 percent) then becoming sunny
                    (20-30 percent). Patchy fog early in the
                    morning. Patchy fog late in the morning. Chance
                    of rain showers early in the morning. Slight
                    chance of rain showers in the morning.
CWR.................17 percent decreasing to 0 percent through
                    early afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 62.
Min humidity........78 percent.
Dewpoint............53.
Surface winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 9 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 9 mph.
Mixing height.......400-900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 7 to 9 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2300 knot-ft).
LVORI...............5.
ADI.................9.
Haines Index........4 to 5 OR or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.
CEILING (KFT).......0.3 increasing to 25.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........93     91     88     86     83     43
Weather cov.....CHANCE S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RN/FG  NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............20     0      0      0      0      0
Temp............55     57     59     60     61     61
Dewpoint........53     54     54     54     54     54
RH..............93     90     83     81     78     78
20 ft wind......W 5    W 6    W 7    W 7    W 7    SW 8
20 ft wind gust.6      7      8      8      8      9
Surface wind....W 5    W 6    W 7    W 7    W 7    SW 8
Surface wnd gst.6      7      8      8      8      9
Mix hgt (ft)....400    400    600    800    900    700
Transport wind..W 7    W 8    W 9    W 9    NW 9   SW 9
LVORI...........6      5      4      4      4      4
ADI.............8      9      10     10     11     7
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4      5
VRate kt-ft/10002      3      5      6      7      5
Ceiling (kft)...0.3    0.3    1.0    1.0    7.0    25

$$
Forecaster...WTB
Requested by...Tony Davis
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1810442.0/BOX
.DELDT 05/22/18
.EMAIL tony_davis@nps.gov



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