Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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464
FNUS72 KMFL 260826
FWSMFL

Spot Forecast for Avian Complex...NPS Big Cypress
National Weather Service Miami FL
426 AM EDT Sat May 26 2018

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0800 EDT on May 26.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (305) 229-4522, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
Periods of rain are in the forecast today through Sunday night as
Subtropical Storm Alberto moves from south to north across the
eastern Gulf of Mexico. Lightning strikes and heavy downpours
will be a concern at times. Gusty winds will also be possible
associated with any thunderstorms moving near or over the site.
Southeasterly winds will gradually increase through the weekend as
Alberto passes near the region, leading to good dispersion when
rain is not falling.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (95-100 percent). A slight chance of
                    thunderstorms early. Showers likely through the
                    day. A chance of thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 81.
Min humidity........72 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds...becoming southeast 5 to 7 mph
                    early. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms early. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................1-8 strikes until 1100,...then No Tstms until
                    1700,...then 9-15 strikes.
Mixing height.......300-1900 ft AGL...increasing to 2100-2600 ft
                    AGL early.
Transport winds.....East 3 to 9 mph...increasing to 28 to 29 mph.
Dispersion index....8...increasing to 33,...then increasing to 56
                    early...decreasing to 48 late in the afternoon.
LVORI...............5.

TIME (EDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........99  99  99  99  99  99  99  99  99  99
Weather cov.....LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH                         CHC
Temp............73  76  78  80  80  80  80  81  80  79
RH..............93  85  82  77  77  74  74  72  74  77
20 ft wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 ft wind dir..100 100 100 100 110 120 130 130 120 120
20 ft wind spd..3   3   3   5   6   6   7   7   7   7
20 ft wind gust.4   5   5   6   7   7   8   8   8   8
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 1.1 1.9 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.1
TRANSP WIND DIR.E   E   E   SE  SE  E   E   E   E   E
TRANSP WIND SPD.3   9   17  24  26  26  26  29  29  28
Dispersion idx..4   12  33  52  58  60  59  59  56  48
LVORI...........7   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
Chc of pcpn (%).70  70  70  70  70  70  60  60  60  60
LAL.............2   2   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (95-100 percent). Showers likely and a
                    chance of thunderstorms.
Min temperature.....Around 69.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 6 to 8 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................9-15 strikes.
Mixing height.......300-1500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 14 to 21 mph...decreasing to 6 to 10
                    mph until just after midnight.
Dispersion index....32...decreasing to 9.
LVORI...............6.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........99  99  99  99  99  97  97  97  99  99  99  99
Weather cov.....LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Temp............77  77  74  73  72  71  71  70  70  70  70  69
RH..............82  82  90  93  97  100 100 100 100 100 100 100
20 ft wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 ft wind dir..120 120 120 120 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130
20 ft wind spd..7   6   6   7   7   7   7   8   8   8   8   8
20 ft wind gust.8   7   7   8   8   8   8   10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...1.5 0.9 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
TRANSP WIND SPD.21  14  7   6   7   8   8   8   9   9   10  10
Dispersion idx..32  16  7   6   7   8   8   8   8   9   11  11
LVORI...........3   4   5   6   7   8   8   8   8   8   7   6
Chc of pcpn (%).60  60  60  60  60  60  60  60  70  70  70  70
LAL.............3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Showers and a chance of
                    thunderstorms.
Max temperature.....Around 85.
Min humidity........67 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 8 to 12 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
LAL.................9-15 strikes.
Mixing height.......300-1900 ft AGL...increasing to 2400-2700 ft
                    AGL early.
Transport winds.....Southeast 8 to 16 mph...increasing to south 25
                    to 33 mph in the late morning and
                    afternoon,...then decreasing to around 23 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Dispersion index....9...increasing to 21 late in the
                    morning,...then increasing to 44...increasing
                    to 69 early...decreasing to 58...decreasing to
                    47 late in the afternoon.
LVORI...............5.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........99     95     95     93     97     97
Weather cov.....LIKELY DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Temp............69     73     80     83     84     84
RH..............100    100    82     74     70     67
20 ft wind dir..SE     SE     S      S      S      S
20 ft wind dir..130    140    160    160    170    170
20 ft wind spd..8      8      10     12     12     12
20 ft wind gust.10     10     13     14     14     14
MIX HGT (FT)....300    300    1900   2700   2700   2500
TRANSPORT WIND..SE 9   SE 9   S 25   S 33   S 29   S 25
Dispersion idx..10     10     44     72     65     55
LVORI...........7      7      3      3      3      2
Chc of pcpn (%).70     80     80     80     80     80
LAL.............3      3      3      3      3      3

$$
Forecaster...Scharfenberg
Requested by...Carol OBryan
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1810563.0/MFL



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