Text Products for FWS Issued by MKX

Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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000
FNUS73 KMKX 221155
FWSMKX

Spot Forecast for Frog Alley Uplands RX...WI DNR
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
655 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on April 22.

Please contact the National Weather Service if conditions become
unrepresentative or if you have questions/concerns about this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

Gusty southwest 20 foot winds of 10 to 15 MPH at ignition, with
gusts to 20 MPH, will quickly increase to 15 to 20 MPH, with
gusts to 30 MPH, into this afternoon. Good smoke dispersal values
at ignition will quickly improve to excellent by midday.

Deep mixing heights of 4000 to 6000 feet AGL should occur as well,
which will result in relative humidity values dropping into the
20 to 25 percent range this afternoon. Excellent smoke dispersal
values are forecast this afternoon.

The gusty winds and very low relative humidity values will result
in elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon. The relative
humidity values could drop a little lower, if deeper mixing
occurs. The middle to high clouds moving in this afternoon may
limit this potential.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent) then becoming partly
                    sunny (60-70 percent).
Temperature.........55 at ignition...Max 65.
RH..................41 percent at ignition...Min 23 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds southwest at 9 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Light winds becoming
                    southwest around 16 mph with gusts to around 25
                    mph.
Mixing height.......2400 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 6100 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 10 to 17 mph increasing to 22 to 31
                    mph late in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Good /36600 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /69300 knot-ft/ increasing to
                    excellent (106800 knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 6.

TIME (CDT)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........3   3   4   4   14  25  35  46  56  67  73
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............42  47  51  55  59  61  63  64  65  65  64
RH..............65  53  48  41  33  29  26  24  25  26  27
20 FT wind dir..W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..4   6   7   9   11  13  15  16  16  16  16
20 FT wind gust.6   8   12  16  18  20  21  23  24  25  24
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 1.1 1.8 2.4 3.6 4.9 6.1 5.9 5.8 5.6 4.2
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  W   SW  W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.10  12  15  17  22  25  29  29  30  31  31
Haines index....6   6   6   6   6   6   5   5   5   5   5
SDspl kt-ft/10004   11  23  37  69  107 152 148 150 151 113

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers in the evening.
Temperature.........Min 49.
RH..................Max 77 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 13 to 16 mph with gusts to
                    around 28 mph.
Mixing height.......700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 21 to 28 mph shifting to the west
                    around 17 mph early in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (65400 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (10200 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........80  86  88  90  91  86  80  75  64  53  41  37
Weather cov.....    SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....    RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Temp............63  61  59  58  56  55  55  55  54  53  51  51
RH..............29  32  36  39  43  45  47  47  50  54  61  63
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..15  15  15  15  16  16  16  16  16  15  14  13
20 FT wind gust.23  22  23  25  26  26  28  28  26  25  23  20
Mix hgt (kft)...2.7 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W
Transp wind spd.28  22  21  22  23  25  26  28  25  24  21  17
Haines index....5   4   4   4   4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5
SDspl kt-ft/100065  24  21  20  18  23  26  26  20  18  14  10

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent) then becoming
                    partly sunny (65-75 percent). Rain showers
                    likely and slight chance of thunderstorms in
                    the afternoon.
Temperature.........Max 67.
RH..................Min 35 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to around 23
                    mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......7700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 15 to 23 mph increasing to 25 to 29 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (7000 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (70700 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to excellent (92200
                    knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........33  29  37  44  52  59  67  74  71  68  64  62
Weather cov.....                            LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....                            RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                            SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Temp............51  50  53  56  61  63  65  66  66  66  64  63
RH..............68  74  69  62  53  46  40  37  36  36  40  43
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..11  10  10  11  12  13  14  15  15  15  15  14
20 FT wind gust.18  16  16  17  18  19  21  22  23  23  23  21
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 3.9 5.8 7.7 7.1 6.4 5.7 4.2
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.16  15  20  20  20  21  23  25  26  28  29  25
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
SDspl kt-ft/10008   7   18  26  34  71  117 170 162 153 142 92

$$
Forecaster...Wood
Requested by...Adam Holcomb
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411701.0/MKX
.DELDT 04/22/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL adam.holcomb@wisconsin.gov
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
