Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FNUS72 KMLB 261923
FWSMLB

Spot Forecast for Sebastain Inlet State Park...Florida Park Service
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
323 PM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1600 EDT on April 26.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

The Atlantic sea breeze has moved inland to just west of the burn
site resulting in east-southeasterly surface winds around 10-15
mph through this evening with generally good dispersions. After
sunset winds will diminish to around 5-10 mph and veer southerly
and then westerly overnight. Southwesterly surface winds Friday
morning will become south-southwesterly by late Friday morning.
Winds should also be light enough to allow the sea-breeze to move
inland during the afternoon resulting in a wind shift to
southeasterly at the burn site. Dispersions will be fair to good
during the morning and then decrease in the afternoon as transport
winds and mixing heights are forecast to decrease. There is also
a chance of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon.

Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 84.
Min humidity........47 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 10 mph.
Mixing height.......4000-4200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 13 to 14 mph.
Dispersion index....50.
LVORI...............1.

TIME (EDT)      4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........22  25
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0
Temp............79  79
RH..............47  51
20 FT wind dir..S   S
20 FT wind spd..10  10
20 FT wind gust.15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...4.0 4.2
Transp wind dir.SW  SW
Transp wind spd.13  14
Dispersion idx..47  53
LVORI...........1   1

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 64.
Max humidity........87 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 9 mph.
Mixing height.......1700-3000 ft AGL decreasing to 500 ft AGL early
                    in the evening.
Transport winds.....West 9 to 13 mph.
Dispersion index....40 decreasing to 6.
LVORI...............2 increasing to 6.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........25     29     29     29     14     14
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............78     75     73     70     69     66
RH..............54     69     71     76     78     87
20 ft wind......S 9    S 8    SW 9   W 10   W 8    W 7
20 ft wind gust.10     10     10     15     10
Mix hgt (ft)....3000   500    500    500    500    500
Transport wind..SW 13  SW 10  W 12   W 12   W 10   W 10
Dispersion idx..40     5      8      8      5      5
LVORI...........1      3      3      4      5      6

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers early in the afternoon. Chance of
                    showers and slight chance of thunderstorms late
                    in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1700, then 1-8 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 83.
Min humidity........60 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 6 to 8 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......500-2200 ft AGL increasing to 2400-3900 ft AGL
                    late in the morning, then decreasing to 1700 ft
                    AGL late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 8 to 12 mph.
Dispersion index....5 increasing then increasing to 37 late in the morning
                    decreasing to 30 in the afternoon.
LVORI...............6 decreasing to 2.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........14     26     26     31     42     42
Weather cov.....                            S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      10     10     20     40     40
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............66     67     74     78     80     79
RH..............87     84     71     62     60     62
20 ft wind......W 7    W 6    W 7    SW 8   S 7    S 8
20 ft wind gust.                     10            10
Mix hgt (ft)....500    500    2200   3300   3900   2400
Transport wind..W 9    SW 9   W 12   SW 10  SW 8   SW 10
Dispersion idx..4      6      30     40     34     30
LVORI...........6      4      3      1      1      1

$$
Forecaster...Combs
Requested by...Matt Phifer
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1808005.0/MLB
.EMAIL matthew.phifer@dep.state.fl.us


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