831
FXUS65 KFGZ 062115
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
215 PM MST Mon May 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Temperatures will remain cool with dry conditions and
breezy afternoons through the rest of the week. Ridging returns over
the weekend with warmer temperatures expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The low pressure system that brought last night`s
weather continues to push away from Arizona this afternoon as it
makes its way into the Northern Plains states. In it`s wake, a
cool and breezy day is underway across northern Arizona.

While yesterday`s low continues to wobble around the northern
plains states over the next few days, a longwave trough settles in
across much of the west through the end of this week and early
part of the weekend. The will keep temperatures near to below
normal most days. Another wave feature and associated cold front
will rotate through the long wave trough Tuesday which will
tighten pressure gradients across Arizona. Wind speeds will
increase enough to warrant a wind advisory and some low elevation
red flag warnings for northeastern Arizona where the strongest
gusts of 40 to 50 mph are expected. Wind directions will be more
westerly on Tuesday as opposed to the predominate southwesterly we
usually see this time of year. A few pockets of blowing dust will
also be possible in the Little Colorado River and Chinle Valleys.

As the upper level low sags southward and into Arizona from
Wednesday through Saturday, we can expect much less wind. A few
showers cannot be ruled out and there`s a 10-20% chance from
Friday through Sunday mainly across Apache County and 4 Corners
areas. The bulk of the forecast area looks to remain dry, but
there is some indication among ensemble member solutions for a
slightly deeper low developing which could increases these
chances
- something to keep an eye on.

High pressure looks to dominate the weather pattern by Sunday with
a warming trend expected to begin.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 06/18Z through Tuesday 07/18Z...VFR conditions are
expected throughout today, with west-northwest winds gusting
20-30 kts. Stronger winds will be possible along and NE of a KGCN-
KFLG-KSOW line. Calmer winds look to return after 06Z. Southwest
10-20kts winds will develop after 16Z.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 07/18Z through Thursday 09/18Z...VFR conditions
should persist through the outlook period. Strong W-SW winds
expected Tuesday afternoon, gusting 30-40 kts. Lighter W-NW winds
forecast for Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today through Wednesday...Slight warming
today and Tuesday. Minimum RH in the single digits to low 20s each
day. West winds 15-25 mph gusting 30 mph today and with gusts 30-40
mph Tuesday. Critical fire weather conditions are expected Tuesday
afternoon across the lower elevations in northeastern Arizona.

Thursday through Saturday...Temperatures will warm into the
weekend. Minimum RH values will remain in the single digits-20s
range each afternoon, with typical spring-like breezes. Just a
slight chance of showers moves into Apache County on Saturday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Wind Advisory from noon MST /1 PM MDT/ to 7 PM MST /8 PM MDT/
Tuesday for AZZ004-005-009>015-039-040.

Red Flag Warning from noon MST /1 PM MDT/ to 7 PM MST /8 PM MDT/
Tuesday for AZZ109-110-112>114-140.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCT
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff