092
FXUS65 KABQ 020820
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
220 AM MDT Thu May 2 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 220 AM MDT Thu May 2 2024

Cooler temperatures areawide today with the most notable cooling
across far northeast and east central areas behind a backdoor front.
Low clouds and patchy drizzle are expected across northeast areas
Friday morning as the backdoor front is reinforced south and west
and moves through the rest of eastern New Mexico. The backdoor front
retreats northeast during the day Friday but a shower or storm could
be possible across northeast NM if the boundary is slow to retreat.
Another backdoor front moves through eastern New Mexico Friday night
into Saturday morning. This front combined with Gulf moisture moving
into southeast New Mexico and a weak disturbance will bring the
chance for showers and storms Saturday afternoon and night. If a
storm were to become strong to severe, it would probably occur in
the far southeast around the Lea, Chaves and Roosevelt County
borders. Moisture gets pushed quickly back towards Texas Sunday due
to the next storm system moving into the Intermountain West with
strong winds and critical fire weather conditions spreading east
heading into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 220 AM MDT Thu May 2 2024

An upper level trough moving through the central/southern Rockies is
pushing a weak cold front south into northern NM currently and that
airmass will make slow southward progress today. Cooling behind the
front will be most notable across the east central and northeast
plains behind the backdoor segment, where highs will be 10 or so
degrees lower than yesterday`s. Despite the cooling, highs are
forecast to reach slightly above normal most areas this afternoon.
Otherwise, gusty westerly winds are forecast across central and
western NM this afternoon, but not as strong as yesterday`s winds.
The backdoor segment of the cold front will progress westward to the
central mountain chain tonight into Friday morning, with low stratus
filling in behind it as moist low level easterly flow prevails in
the thin frontal layer. Weak westerly flow will prevail across the
region Friday as another upper level trough moves east across the
central Rockies. The trough will cause winds to back and increase in
the lower levels across eastern NM, providing favorable veering wind
profiles in the event storms develop late day. The latest NAM is
advertising sufficient instability and bulk shear for strong and
perhaps even low-end severe storms late Friday afternoon, with the
best chances near the TX border. This is a low probability scenario
with model spread noted in the 00Z model suite. Have introduced a
slight chance mention from the east central plains north and west to
the east slopes of the Sangre De Cristos.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 220 AM MDT Thu May 2 2024

If the initial backdoor front mentioned in the short term does
not fully retreat into the Texas panhandle, some showers and
isolated storms could be possible across northeast Friday evening.
Meanwhile, ABL decoupling after sunset Friday will allow the dryline
across the Permian Basin in West Texas and the higher Gulf moisture
ahead of it to retreat west into far southeast NM Friday night into
Saturday morning. Another backdoor front due to a surface high on
the backside of an upper level trough moving east into the central
Great Plains will move through most of eastern NM come Saturday
morning. Guidance is indicating drier air behind this backdoor
front with PWATs of around 0.4 to 0.5 inches. This will
put the highest moisture with dewpoints in the 50s to near 60s
across far southeast NM (southern Roosevelt, southeast Chaves,
eastern Eddy and Lea County). The backdoor front will also move
through the gaps of the central mountain chain and bring a gusty
east to southeast wind for Santa Fe and Albuquerque shortly after
sunrise Saturday continuing during the day. Wind gusts of 30 to 40
mph are possible.

During the day Saturday, a shortwave will be moving northeast into
the state along the subtropical jet ahead of an anomalously
deep upper low moving into the Pacific NW. This shortwave will bring
very dry low level southwest flow to southwest and south central NM
with the backdoor front along a line from north central NM extending
southeast to southern Chaves and north central Lea County. The
dryline looks to extend south of the boundary along the Lea and Eddy
County line. Some afternoon and early evening virga showers/dry
storms and resultant erratic wind gusts could be possible across
north central NM north of front due to some mid level moisture from
the upper level disturbance. The 0Z suite of models are honing in on
the placement of the initial development of storms to be across the
southern Roosevelt, southeast Chaves, northeast Eddy and northern
Lea County borders as this is where the highest moisture and
instability is located south of the backdoor front and east of the
dryline. If a storm were to become strong to severe, it will
probably be in this zone before moving northeast into the Texas
Panhandle and West Texas Permian Basin. These storms will send
outflows back west into eastern NM and outflow interactions could
result in the development of more showers and storms heading into
early Saturday night likely remaining below severe limits. This
outflow will likely move west through the gaps of the central
mountain chain and bring another increase in moisture reinforce the
southeast wind across the ABQ and Santa Fe metros Saturday evening
into Saturday night with the NAM guidance indicating winds close to
Wind Advisory criteria at KABQ.

This moisture and the dryline quickly mixes east towards the Texas
border Sunday due to increasing southwest flow and a dryslot ahead
of the Pacific upper low moving into the Great Basin. A stray shower
or storm could form along the dryline across the NM/ TX border
Sunday afternoon if the dryline does`t mix as quickly before quickly
moving east into Texas. Increasing upper level southwest flow across
western and central NM will result in a windy day across this part
of the state with the strongest winds near the Arizona border where
Wind Advisories might be needed. With the winds and single digit to
low teens RHs critical fire weather conditions are expected across
western and central NM. The upper low moves to the northern and
central Rockies Monday sending a Pacific cold front through western
and central NM  Sunday night into Monday morning and cooling
temperatures there. The front could generate a few snow showers in
the Tusas before much drier air moves in across the entire region
indicated by PWATs around 0.10 inches this will result in critical
fire weather conditions, especially across central and eastern NM.
West winds will be gusty at the base of the upper low with Wind
Advisories likely needed for the central mountain chain and adjacent
highlands and plains in northeast and east central NM. West winds
remain very brisk due to the stronger upper level flow at the base
of the upper low across the region with temperatures warming
back up across western and central NM. Another day of widespread
critical fire weather looks likely with this setup.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1111 PM MDT Wed May 1 2024

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist, although low
stratus may flirt with KTCC overnight. A weak backdoor front will
bring a wind shift to KLVS and KTCC overnight. Elsewhere, gusty
westerly flow will prevail Thursday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 220 AM MDT Thu May 2 2024

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PATTERN FOR POTENTIAL LARGE FIRE GROWTH
SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK...

Hot, dry and unstable conditions will prevail through Saturday
across western and portions of central NM, while two backdoor fronts
supply moist easterly upslope flow and higher humidity to much of
eastern NM. The increased moisture across eastern NM may fuel a few
wetting storms by late Friday and Saturday, with the best chances
near the TX border. A few dry lightning strikes are possible across
north central NM Saturday afternoon as the backdoor front makes
further progress westward into central NM and provides sufficient
moisture for late day buildups. A critical fire weather pattern
will develop Sunday and continue through the middle of next week
with the potential for large fire growth as a potent upper level
trough moves east across the region and strong westerly flow
continues in it`s wake.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  71  37  77  41 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  67  30  71  33 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  67  36  71  40 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  71  32  74  36 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  69  36  71  39 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  73  33  75  36 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  70  37  73  40 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  74  45  76  46 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  70  39  72  41 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  75  33  77  37 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  79  47  81  49 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  62  32  66  34 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  70  45  71  47 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  70  39  71  40 /   0   0  10   0
Cerro/Questa....................  64  37  66  40 /   0   0  10   0
Red River.......................  59  29  60  31 /   0   0  10   0
Angel Fire......................  62  26  63  28 /   0   0  20   0
Taos............................  69  32  71  35 /   0   0  10   0
Mora............................  68  35  68  35 /   0   0  20   0
Espanola........................  76  41  77  44 /   0   0   5   0
Santa Fe........................  71  44  73  45 /   0   0   5   0
Santa Fe Airport................  74  41  76  43 /   0   0   5   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  77  51  78  51 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  80  48  80  49 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  82  47  82  49 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  80  48  80  50 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  81  45  83  46 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  80  47  81  48 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  81  44  82  46 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  81  46  81  48 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  81  44  82  46 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  75  48  77  48 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  80  48  80  49 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  83  48  85  50 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  70  44  72  44 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  72  44  74  45 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  73  40  75  41 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  75  35  77  37 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  71  38  72  38 /   0   0   5   0
Mountainair.....................  73  41  75  42 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  73  41  76  42 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  77  49  78  51 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  71  45  72  46 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  68  38  69  36 /  20  10  20   5
Raton...........................  73  36  73  37 /  10  10  20   0
Springer........................  75  38  74  39 /   5   5  20   0
Las Vegas.......................  72  38  70  38 /   0   5  20   0
Clayton.........................  71  44  72  43 /  10  10  30  20
Roy.............................  73  44  71  43 /  10  10  20   5
Conchas.........................  79  48  77  48 /  10  10  20   5
Santa Rosa......................  79  46  77  45 /   0   5  20   0
Tucumcari.......................  79  48  76  48 /  10  10  20  10
Clovis..........................  80  50  79  50 /  10  10  20  10
Portales........................  82  51  81  51 /  10  10  20  10
Fort Sumner.....................  82  49  81  49 /   0   5  20   0
Roswell.........................  90  55  90  54 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  83  49  83  48 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  80  47  81  46 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...11