Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 220216 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
916 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 915 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Cloud cover is beginning to dissipate over the region, so made
some minor adjustments to the forecast. No changes made to winds
or temperatures at this time.

&&


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

The northern portion of the CWA is currently seeing mostly sunny
skies with highs in the upper 50s. Meanwhile the southern portion is
seeing cloudy skies with temperatures in the 40s. The cloudy skies
should remain over the southern portion of SD through tonight,
keeping lows from falling into the 20s. A fast moving upper level
shortwave will cross southern Canada late tonight through Sunday
with only southerly winds and mid level clouds expected. Fairly
strong half km winds tonight, mainly over ND, may keep northern SD
from falling into the 20s.

On Sunday, the region should finally see widespread temperatures in
the 60s, or around average for this time of year.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

We`ll end the weekend and start the work week on a quiet, mild and
dry note across the CWA as the area remains between low pressure
systems...one southeast of the region and the other incoming from
the west. For Monday, timing is coming together in the pattern and
shaping up for a relatively warm day for a change. Most locales
should have no problem warming into the 60s for high temperatures.

By the end of the day Monday, attention will turn to the incoming
system from the west. Models continue to prog a fairly robust
shortwave to slide from the northern Rockies into the western
Dakotas/Northern Plains before slipping to the south and east
Monday into Tuesday. NAM/ECMWF/CMC all going with more of a split
flow taking one piece of energy north/east across southern
Canada/western Great Lakes and a closed upper low trekking thru
western SD and then south and east into NE. GFS doesn`t make that
split and keeps the two areas of energy more together. Thus, it
has a little more in the way of rain farther east into our CWA
while the previous three models tend to be dry east, keeping
higher moisture potential a little farther west. After
collaboration with surrounding offices, went with the somewhat
more drier east/wetter west solution for Monday night into
Tuesday. Could see a brief period of some strong winds around the
low Monday night into Tuesday, especially across the Missouri
River Valley. Temps will briefly cool owing to the affect of more
clouds and rain on Tuesday before bouncing back the middle to
latter portion of next week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

VFR conditions will prevail across the area tonight and through
the day Sunday.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Parkin
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...Vipond
AVIATION...Parkin



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