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000
FXAK69 PAFG 121539
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
739 AM AKDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Westerly zonal flow will cause a series of weather systems to move
east across Northern Alaska through early next week. A strong cold
front along the West Coast of Alaska that will bringing strong NW
winds, snow, blowing snow and much colder temperatures to NW
Alaska will spread east across the North Slope and Interior today
and tonight. Blizzard or near blizzard conditions over NW AK will
taper off this afternoon. Near Blizzard conditions will spread
east across the North Slope today and then diminish from the west
tonight. The Southeast Interior is getting Chinook conditions
this morning that will end later today as the cold front moves
east and spreads snow to the Eastern Interior. Expect blowing snow
over the Upper Tanana Valley and Alaska Range late tonight into
Sat AM.

Most areas can expect 1-2 inches of snow through tonight, but the
Alaska Range and Brooks Range can expect another 2-4 inches
through tonight.

Early next week will see a warming trend most of Northern AK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Westerly zonal flow will continue over northern AK through the
weekend. A very deep 4830 meter 500 mb low northwest of Wrangel Is
will move to north of Utqiagvik by 4pm Sat, then retreat north on
Sun and Mon. A strong short wave extending from this low south
over the West Coast of Alaska will move to Utqiagvik to Bethel by
4pm Fri, to Barter Island to McGrath from 4am Sat, and along the
ALCAN Border by 4pm Sat. Snow is occuring east of this trough with
snow ending and partial clearing west of this trough. A ridge
building over Eastern AK early next week will cause a dramatic
warming next week.

Models all initialize 10-20 meters too low in 500 mb heights over
Western AK at 00Z, but that should be taken care of this morning.
The ECMWF and Canadian Models show the best consistency with each
other aloft for today through Sun, while the NAM is an outlier and
the GFS is too weak with the low north of Wrangel Is. Considering
this opted to go with a blend of the ECMWF and Canadian for
features aloft. Will use a blend of the ECMWF and consistency for
precipitation through tonight, but add high probability precip to
the area currently getting it from NW AK to Fairbanks.

At the surface the Canadian and ECMWF verify well at 06Z and
showed similar solutions through Sat. Will use the Canadian for
details on the winds and then merge to the ECMWF in the later
periods of Sun. NW gale force winds over the Bering Strait will
decrease this morning, while NW gales over Kotzebue sound will
continue into this afternoon and decrease this afternoon. NW winds
of 2o to 30 mph will spread over the Western Arctic Coast this
morning, and to the Eastern Arctic this afternoon, with gale
force winds over Barter Island as high pressure builds in with
cold advection tonight.

Surface features...
A 979 mb low 100 NM northeast of Utqiagvik will move to 300 NM
north Barter Island as a 982 mb low by 4pm Fri and then continue
north. A polar cold front extending from this low to Old Crow to
Denali will move to Inuvik to Northway by 4pm Fri. There are snow
showers along this front that will spread east with the front
today but become more scattered southeast of Fairbanks where SW
flow aloft keeps some chinook affect going today. Could see
several inches of snow along this boundary today.

An Arctic cold front extending from this low to Utqiagvik to a
982 mb low near Kotzebue then south to Bethel. This front will
move east to Barter Island to a 992 mb low near Ambler by 4pm Fri
and then south to McGrath. This front will move to Inuvik to a 999
mb low near Ft Yukon by 4am Sat, then south to Tok, then as a 1008
mb low near Arctic Village with the front south to Northway by 4pm
Sat. There are light snow showers along this front that will
spread an inch or two east with the front through Sat. There are
NW winds 15 gust 25 mph along the front that will spread east with
the front. Expect NW Gales closer to the Low center north over NW
AK that will spread east to the Eastern Arctic Coast tonight.
Expect gusty NW winds over the Brooks Range this afternoon and
tonight as well.

A 1006 mb low will develop in the Chukchi Sea by 4am Sat and then
move east across the North Slope of Alaska Sat and Sun. This will
bring another round of light snow to the NW Arctic late tonight
and Sat, and spreading east across the North Slope Sat and Sat
night. This will bring another several inches of snow but most of
it should remain from the Brooks Range North.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ802-828.
     High Wind Warning for AKZ849.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ815-848-850.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ812.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ813-814-816-819.
     Blizzard Warning for AKZ817-818.
     Blizzard Warning for AKZ820-821.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ803.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ823.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ804-808.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ805.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ809.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-803-852-858.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802-805-806-850-853-854.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ804-857.
     Gale Warning for PKZ807-808-856.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813-859.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-860.
     Gale Warning for PKZ815.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ816-817.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ851.
     Gale Warning for PKZ855.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.
&&

$$

JB