Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 241353
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
953 AM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy conditions continue today. High pressure builds in from the
north bringing drier conditions today into early next week.
Unsettled weather returns by mid-late week with additional rain
likely.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 645 AM EDT Sunday...

Latest sfc analysis depicts low pressure off the coast of Maine with
sfc high pressure over the Great Lakes and clear skies across
the area. The pressure gradient between these features will lead
to breezy/windy conditions continuing into early this
afternoon, with locations along the coast most at risk of seeing
minor wind- related impacts. Here, N winds with gusts to 45 mph
are possible. Farther inland, wind gusts of 20-30 mph will
continue to be possible. Wind advisories remain in effect
through late this morning/early this afternoon for
counties/cities bordering the bay and ocean.

Temps as of 640 AM ranged from the lower 30s (locally upper 20s) N
to the mid 30s S and around 40F along the coast. Lows this
morning perhaps a degree cooler. However, given the strong
winds, wind chills will be quite cold into early this morning
with minimum wind chills in the 20s. Highs today in the mid-
upper 40s NE to the low-mid 50s SW. Will note that some CAMs
show temps only in the upper 40s across most of the area.
Irregardless, it will be a chilly day.

With high pressure ridging into the area overnight overnight and the
pressure gradient slacking, winds subside substantially for inland
locations overnight apart from the immediate coast. With light winds
inland and clear skies, temps drop into the upper 30s to lower 30s W
but remain upper 30s to lower 40s along the coast (due to the wind).
While most inland areas are expected to drop below freezing, the
frost/freeze program has only started for NE NC and extreme SE VA
(south of the James River). As such, a Freeze Warning is in effect
for Northampton County, NC with Frost Advisories for Hertford and
Bertie Counties. Will note that while temps may drop below freezing
for portions of the Hertford/Bertie, given slightly stronger winds,
confidence is not high enough for an impactful freeze for crops.
Some patchy frost is possible in SW Suffolk and W Gates County,
however, given the lower confidence in frost formation due to the
wind, will hold off on advisories for these areas at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 350 AM EDT Sunday...

High pressure (centered well N of the local) continues to ridge S
into the area Mon and Tues with mostly sunny skies Mon. Clouds
increase Mon night into Tue with mostly cloudy skies Tue ahead of
the next system. Low pressure develops in the lee of the Rockies
today, moving NE into Ontario by Tue. This will allow for the
trailing cold front and parent trough to move E by Tue, creating the
cloud cover. Some light showers are possible across W portions of
the FA by late Tue night. Highs in the low-mid 50s NE to lower 60s
SW Mon and Tue. Lows in the lower 30s NW to low-mid 40s SE Mon night
and low-mid 40s Tue night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 400 AM EDT Sunday...

A trough moves E slowly Wed through late week with a cold front
pushing E Wed before stalling over E portions of the FA into Thu.
Some rain is possible along the front Wed, however, with the forcing
so far displaced and the front slowing/weakening, don`t expect
much in terms of QPF. A S stream shortwave trough rounds the
base of the longwave trough and moves towards the E coast Wed
night into Fri morning with models showing the potential for a
coastal low to develop along the stalled cold front along/just
off the coast. This would throw moisture back N into the area
from late Wed into Thu. Confidence has increased in PoPs during
this time with likely PoPs (60-70%) in place for most of the FA
Wed evening through Thu (highest chance along the coast). The
EPS shows the potential for 1- 1.5" of rain with the GEFS
similar but a little lower at 0.75-1". Behind that system, high
pressure builds back in with dry weather returning along with a
warming trend.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 640 AM EDT Sunday...

Low pressure was located off the coast of Maine early this
morning with high pressure over the Great Lakes and clear skies
across the area. N winds of 10-20 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt
inland and 20-25 kt with gusts to 35-40 kt along the coast
continue into early this afternoon. Winds gradually diminish
this afternoon, becoming light inland this evening and overnight
(4-7 kt). Along the coast, winds remain breezy at ORF/ECG at
15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt tonight. VFR conditions prevail
through the taf period, however, some model guidance indicates
the potential for a marine layer to develop tonight with MVFR
CIGs (1500-2500 ft). Will continue to monitor trends to see if
this appears likely and whether or not it may make it inland to
the SE terminals.

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through Mon night. However,
onshore flow and potential cloudiness will be possible Tue.
Additional rain chances will then be possible late Tue night
into Thu night, with degraded flight conditions possible.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 950 AM EDT Sunday...

The satellite imagery and model data show an area of low
pressure now beginning to develop off the SE US coast about
halfway between the coast and Bermuda. Meanwhile strong high
pressure, centered just south of Hudson`s Bay continues to build
southward along the eastern seaboard. This is keeping a tight
pressure gradient along the US east coast with gusty winds. But
the gradient is beginning to relax and models show that the cold
air advection that was helping to enhance the winds overnight
will come to an end this morning. So expect to see some
relaxation in the wind fields this afternoon and tonight. So
have begun to drop the gales for parts of the waters with this
update, dropping the majority of the rivers and north Chesapeake
Bay Zone to SCA conditions. Expect to see additional changes
with future updates to the forecast later today. Otherwise, the
remainder of the forecast beyond tonight remains unchanged.

Previous Discussion...As of early this morning, seas were
running 6-9 ft nearshore/8-11 ft offshore with waves of 5-7 ft
in the Ches Bay. Seas will gradually build to 9-13 ft into
Monday.

Gales will persist through midday today before the gradient
slowly slackens from NW to SE late. Thereafter, winds remain
elevated (15-20 kt in the bay and 20-25 kt offshore) well into
Monday as the gradient remains steep between high pressure
building in from the north and low pressure lingering offshore.

Due to persistent NE winds, a long period of elevated
waves/seas will accompany the stronger winds and continue
through Wednesday. A significant swell will be maintained along
the coast into midweek. As far as headlines go, Gale Warnings
are in place for the entire marine area and these will last
through this afternoon/evening. Additionally, high surf
advisories are in effect for Atlantic beaches for nearshore
waves 8-11 ft/9-13 ft offshore. The high surf advisory is in
effect through late Monday for now and will likely need to be
extended into Wednesday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 500 AM EDT Sunday...

A blow out tide (up to 1 ft below normal) will occur along the
Ches Bay side of the lower MD Eastern shore during low tide
later this morning. Otherwise, water levels will begin to slowly
increase over the next 48 hrs as high pressure to our north
interacts with broad low pressure well offshore to cause a
prolonged period of onshore (E-NE) flow and elevated seas
nearshore. This combination of increased winds and elevated seas
will not allow water to flow out of the mouth of the Ches Bay
as efficiently and over time this water will start to back up
into the middle and upper Bay. So, not only will some minor to
moderate coastal flooding be possible along the Atlantic coast
from Ocean City, MD to Currituck, NC starting today, but minor
to locally moderate coastal flooding will be possible up the
Ches Bay to Cambridge and Bishops Head, MD starting Monday night
and then continuing for all of the local waters through Tuesday
and possibly Wednesday. Locations across the lower Ches Bay,
the lower James River, and the southern coastal waters from VA
Beach to the northern OBX will have the best chance of reaching
moderate coastal flooding thresholds.

Due to tidal anomalies already increasing rapidly this morning
from about Lynnhaven around to VA Beach and south to Currituck
(given the strong NE winds and building waves/seas), have issued
a Coastal Flood Advisory starting with this morning`s high tide
cycle and continuing through this evening`s high tide cycle.
Additionally, have issued a Coastal Flood Statement for
Norfolk/Portsmouth (namely from Sewells Pt to Money Pt) due to
water levels coming close to minor flood thresholds with this
morning`s high tide cycle. If tidal anomalies continue to trend
as expected, then coastal flood advisories will be necessary
for these same areas for this evening`s high tide cycle and
beyond.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT Tuesday for MDZ025.
NC...High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT Tuesday for NCZ102.
     Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Monday for
     NCZ012.
     Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Monday for
     NCZ013-030.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for NCZ102.
VA...High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT Tuesday for VAZ098>100.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for VAZ098.
     Wind Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for VAZ084-086-099-
     100-523>525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for ANZ630.
     Gale Warning until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ631-638.
     Gale Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ632-634-650-
     652.
     Gale Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ633-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     ANZ635>637.
     Gale Warning until 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...RMM
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...ESS/JDM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...


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