Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FNUS71 KAKQ 172339
FWSAKQ

Spot Forecast for Benjamin Tanner...Benjamin Tanner
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
739 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 2000 EDT on April 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service at 757-899-5734.

.DISCUSSION...
A warm front continues to lift north tonight with south winds 5-10
mph this evening becoming southwest around midnight. Winds
gradually become west by late tonight into Thursday morning behind
dry outflow. There is a slight chance (~20%) for a brief, light
shower early tonight before 2 AM EDT. Lows tonight in the lower
60s with maximum RH around 80%. Clouds clear late tonight.

.REST OF TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) then becoming
                    mostly clear (15-25 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers early in the evening. Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms late in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 62.
Max humidity........81 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 6 to 8 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    evening.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 8 to 13 mph shifting to the west
                    around 12 mph early in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3800 knot-ft).
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................5 to 11.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........90  89  89  88  70  53  35  26  17  9
Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........            SCH SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).20  20  20  20  20  20  10  10  10  0
Temp............73  70  68  68  67  66  65  65  65  64
RH..............64  66  68  68  70  73  78  75  75  78
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   7   7   7   7   7   6   6
20 FT wind gust.9   9   11  12  13  12  12  12  9   9
Mix hgt (kft)...0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W
Transp wind spd.8   9   10  10  12  13  13  13  12  12
LVORI...........3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4
ADI.............6   6   7   7   10  11  8   8   5   5
Haines index....5   5   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..5   5   5   5   5   4   4   4   4   4
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 82.
Min humidity........41 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 7 mph shifting to the north
                    around 7 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......6200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 12 to 17 mph shifting to the northwest
                    around 14 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (5500 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (79100 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................5 early in the morning increasing to 101 in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........8   7   7   9   12  15  25  34  44  41  37  34
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............63  64  65  69  72  75  77  78  80  80  81  80
RH..............81  78  78  68  61  55  50  47  42  42  41  44
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  N   N
20 FT wind spd..6   5   5   5   6   6   7   7   7   7   6   6
20 FT wind gust.9   8   8   9   9   11  11  11  12  11  11  9
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 0.7 0.8 2.0 3.2 4.3 5.0 5.6 6.2 5.7 5.3 4.8
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  W   NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.12  13  13  15  16  17  17  16  15  15  14  14
LVORI...........4   4   4   3   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............5   12  13  38  64  89  97  100 101 93  85  76
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..6   7   9   25  45  65  73  77  79  72  65  57
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  FR  GD  GD  GD  GD  GD  GD  FR

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 50.
Max humidity........89 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 6 to 7 mph.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 10 to 12 mph shifting to the east 8 to 9
                    mph early in the evening.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (35700 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (3400 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................50 early in the evening decreasing to 4 late in
                    the night.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........27     12     18     30     49     59
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............77     69     62     59     56     55
RH..............47     59     72     75     80     83
20 ft wind......N 6    NE 5   E 6    E 6    NE 5   NE 5
20 ft wind gust.9      8      9      9      8      8
Mix hgt (ft)....3400   700    600    500    500    600
Transport wind..N 12   NE 9   E 9    E 9    E 8    E 9
LVORI...........1      3      3      3      4      5
ADI.............50     4      4      4      5      6
Haines index....4      4      5      5      5      5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..36     5      4      4      3      4
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........55 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 5 to 7 mph shifting to the southeast
                    6 to 7 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 9 to 10 mph shifting to the southeast 8 to
                    10 mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (5400 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair (20700 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................6 to 30.
Haines Index........2 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM         10 AM        2 PM
Sky (%).........64           66           50
Weather cov.....                          CHANCE
Weather type....NONE         NONE         RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0            0            30
Temp............52           60           68
RH..............89           69           59
20 FT wind......NE 5G8       E 5G8        SE 6G9
Mix hgt (ft)....700          1700         2400
Transport wind..E 9          E 9          SE 10
LVORI...........5            3            1
ADI.............6            20           30
Haines index....5            4            4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..5            14           21
Ventrate Cat....POOR         POOR         POOR

$$
Forecaster...MILLER
Requested by...Benjamin Tanner
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411283.0/AKQ
.DELDT 04/17/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL benjaminctanner@gmail.com
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