644
FXUS63 KAPX 010141
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
941 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Occasional rain chances into the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 941 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024
Fast-moving area of low pressure and associated cold front has
reached the Upper Mississippi Valley late this evening...generating
a large area of convection stretching from Texas thru OK/KS/MO
and into Wisconsin. Closer to home...area of persistent low
clouds is finally making a move northeastward out of our
CWA...only to be replaced by increasing clouds and increasing
chances of showers as we head into the overnight hours. Current
forecast is still handling the timing of these clouds and precip
into our area fairly well...only minor adjustments needed.
Still do not expect any thunder overnight due to lack of
instability. Temps will generally hold steady
overnight...ranging from the low to mid 40s across Eastern Upper
Michigan to the upper 40s and lower 50s across Northern Lower
Michigan.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Pattern Forecast: Weak surface high pressure moves across the
region through early tonight. A low pressure system will then
track by to the north of the region late tonight into Wednesday
morning (across Lake Superior). Cooler air moves in behind this
system Wednesday afternoon.

Forecast Details: Instability driven clouds are expected to
dissipate this evening only to be replaced by a lowering cloud
deck late tonight into Wednesday morning. Cold air advection
behind the low pressure system likely leads to more instability
clouds (especially north) Wednesday afternoon. Meanwhile...a
line of warm advection/synoptically driven rain showers are
likely across the Upper Peninsula and Northwest Lower late
tonight into Wednesday morning. Just chances for a few showers
across southern zones with the least chances for showers as you
head down toward Saginaw Bay.

Lows tonight ranging from the upper 30s far north to the mid 40s
south. Lowered highs for Wednesday with a large range of
temperatures expected. Highs only in the mid 50s north with
low 70s expected near Saginaw Bay.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Pattern Forecast: Mid-level shortwave troughing and attendant area
of surface low pressure expected to be scooting off to the northeast
at the start of the period Wednesday night.  Troughing set to be
replaced by amplifying ridging aloft through Thursday in advance of
another system pinwheeling across the Canadian Prairies into the
northern Plains. Warm/moist advection in advance of a warm front
associated with this system will aid to bring rain/thunder chances
back into the forecast late Thursday into Friday. Another quick-
moving disturbance over the weekend may bring another brief shot of
active weather.

Forecast Details: At the start of the forecast period Wednesday
night, low pressure centered to the east of Lake Superior will
continue to depart downstream. Perhaps a lingering sprinkle or light
shower far north; otherwise, tranquil conditions anticipated Wed.
night - Thursday with Thursday afternoon highs climbing through the
mid-upper 60s for most...cooler near the lakeshores and eastern U.P.

Next shower/storm chances arrives late in the day Thursday into
Thursday night in response to warm/moist advection and increased
forcing for ascent aloft -- all associated with low pressure sliding
through the northern Plains to near the Manitoba/Ontario border by
midday Friday. System`s cold front crosses Friday morning/midday,
continuing at least scattered shower and low thunder chances into
early afternoon. A break in the action expected Friday night through
much of Saturday, but with at least low PoPs returning to the
forecast by later Saturday/Saturday night in response to another
quick-moving disturbance progged to race across the western Great
Lakes.  Generally quiet weather to round out the weekend. Somewhat
noteworthy is daily high temperatures through pretty much the
entirety of the long term forecast period rising into the 60s and
low 70s for the majority of northern Michigan -- of course cooler
near the lakeshores (as is so often the case this time of year) and
across the eastern U.P.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Fast-moving area of low pressure and associated cold front will
sweep thru the Western Great Lakes region later tonight into
Wednesday morning...bringing a quick bout of showers to
Northern Michigan during this time. MVFR/IFR conditions will
hold on across Eastern Upper Michigan tonight into Wednesday
morning... with mainly MVFR/low VFR conditions expected across
Northern Lower Michigan thru Wednesday. Light/variable winds
tonight will become SE at 10 to 20 kts Wednesday
morning...shifting to the west at 15 to 25 kts Wednesday
afternoon.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
SHORT TERM...AJS
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...MLR