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000
FXUS61 KBGM 240728
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
328 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A seasonably strong cold front moves through this morning with
falling temperatures this afternoon. Rain showers and mostly
cloudy skies persist through the morning into the early
afternoon with clearing skies this evening. A cold night is
expected tonight with lows falling into the 20s for much of the
area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
300 AM Update...

Precipitation has continued to struggle to saturate the lower
atmosphere this morning so chances of precipitation were lowered
further through about 5 am. A strong cold front is already
moving through the Great Lakes and will move into western NY
this morning. Day time highs will likely be reached in the
morning with falling temperatures through the afternoon once the
front is through by around 2 pm. Many of the CAMs want to get
some showers and possibly some thunderstorms to develop this
afternoon. Forecast soundings mostly look to stable and dry to
get some showers going but in NEPA there will be a brief window
where the cold air advection aloft will help steepen the lapse
rates and generate some CAPE just after peak heating. Decided to
keep a slight chance of thunder in the grids for now only in
the Wyoming valley where temperatures will be able to climb into
the 60s ahead of the front. With 850 mb temperatures getting
close to the 13C temperature difference with Lake Ontario, also
increased chances of precipitation in the northern Finger Lakes
for possible lake effect rain showers later this morning into
the afternoon.

Dry air advects in quickly this afternoon into early evening
with precipitation drying up by sunset. Clouds will clear with
surface high pressure building in so lows tonight were lowered a
couple of degrees. The boundary layer looks to at least try to
stay mixed which could limit radiational cooling but given how
dry the airmass is, any areas that decouple in the evening with
the whole night to radiate may fall into the teens. Thursday
begins to moderate but with a low level ridge building in, there
will be little to no temperature advection at 850 mb so with
the colder air in place, highs will stay at or below average in
the low to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM update...

Surface high is in control keeping conditions quiet Thursday
night into Friday. Meanwhile upper level trough slowly lifts
north of our region with a ridge building in behind it. This
keeps cooler air in place for one more night allowing
temperatures to fall into the upper 20s to low 30s. Clear skies
and light winds during the overnight period may contribute to
temperatures falling a few degrees cooler as well. Northerly
flow transitions to southerly flow Friday morning allowing
temperatures to warm into the upper 50s to low 60s. Clear skies
persist for most of the day with clouds moving in Friday night
ahead of the next system. Temperatures Friday night are expected
to range in the upper 30s to low 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
330 AM update...

The upper level ridging expands over our area this weekend then
moves slowly east on Tuesday. Despite the high upper level heights
this will be an unsettled period. High pressure slides to our east
on Saturday with a low pressure system located over the northern
midwest. A warm front associated with this system progresses
eastwards along with rain showers that move into the region sometime
Saturday morning/afternoon. Showers may linger Saturday night
into Sunday behind the front. Warm and unstable air mass could
result in some diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms
possible Sunday and Monday afternoon. Upper level trough and a
surface cold front appears to move through sometime
Tuesday/Wednesday bringing more organized showers along with it
and another opportunity for thunderstorms on Tuesday.

Deep south/southwest flow and ridge over our area allows
temperatures during this period to soar well above average
especially Sunday through Tuesday. Temperatures peak Monday in the
upper 70s to low 80s across the region. Upper level trough and cold
front should bring temperatures back to normal by Wednesday. Granted
this system moves a bit quicker we could see the cool down start on
Tuesday.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Dry air has prevailed in the low levels so VFR conditions
persist at all terminals and based off of upstream observations
will likely stay VFR for a few more hours. Decided to put in
MVFR tempos rather than predominant as cigs likely will not fall
until closer to the time the cold front approaches later this
morning. Still decent low level moisture behind the cold front
will likely lead to some IFR conditions at higher elevated NY
terminals like ITH but lower confidence with IFR at other NY
terminals. BGM may sneak into some IFR at times but confidence
is low and a tempo may be added for the 12Z update. Dry air
moves in this afternoon with VFR conditions returning to all
terminals by 0Z.

Outlook...
Wednesday night...VFR, possible fog at ELM.

Thursday through Friday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday through Sunday...Restrictions possible in rain
showers, especially in the afternoon and evening.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJG
NEAR TERM...AJG
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...AJG/KL