504
FXUS61 KBGM 020654
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
254 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather has returned thru Friday. Temperatures will remain
above average for early May. Then, a brief cool down with
periods of rain showers is expected for the upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
605 PM Update...

No major changes with this update. Blended current observations
into the forecast. Near-term forecast remains on track.


200 PM Update...

Clouds are slowly dissipating early this afternoon as drier air
mixes into the boundary layer from aloft. Clear to mostly clear
skies are expected tonight as a surface high slides off to the
east. Southerly winds will pick up overnight and with dry air
mixing in, decided to keep fog out of the grids for the
overnight hours. A cold front moving through as a weak low
passes through to the north early tomorrow morning with
sprinkles added to much of CNY as the front should be mostly dry
but a few isolated showers can not be ruled out.

Ridging begins to build in tomorrow with NW flow advecting in
cooler air so highs will be a little cooler than today. Dry
weather will continue through Thursday night with the ridge
axis approaching.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
250 AM Update...

Friday night will be mostly dry as rain showers edge into the
Finger Lakes and central southern tier of CNY. Lows in the 40s
in NEPA and the Catskills to the low and mid 50s in the Finger
Lakes.

A slow moving cold front approaches while high pressure remains
off the coast. Increasing low level winds will bring in moisture
from the southwest ahead of the front. Rain showers and possible
thunderstorms will be across the area late Saturday into late
Sunday. An inch of rain is possible but after several dry days
this shouldn`t do much. Highs in the 60s Saturday will drop
Sunday into the 50s east of I81 where the rain will last longer.
Lows Saturday night from the mid 40s to around 50 rise to upper
40s and lower 50s Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
250 AM Update...

Monday and Monday night will be mainly dry with weak high
pressure over the area. Tuesday morning may also be dry as
models slow the onset some with the next front. This strong
front goes through on Wednesday with showers and thunderstorms.
Showers and thunderstorms could continue on Thursday with
another fast moving system.

High temperatures rise to be the 70s Tuesday and Wednesday and
maybe Thursday. Low temperatures Monday night in the upper 40s
to around 50 rise into the 50s Tuesday and Wednesday nights.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mostly VFR conditions can be expected through the period with
high pressure building into the region today. There will be a
weak disturbance passing across northern NY this morning and
there is a small chance for MVFR rain showers at RME during the
early morning hours, however confidence is too low at this time
so added -SHRA with Tempo group, but left conditions VFR with
those passing showers this morning.

Model guidance has also pulled back on the chances for MVFR
ceilings at RME after sunrise today, so have removed any
restrictions from the previous forecast with this update.

Otherwise, VFR clouds will diminish and clear out by mid to late
afternoon today and winds turn west- northwest with gusts of 10-20
kts.

Outlook...

Friday...Mainly VFR, but late day showers/t`storms possible.

Saturday into Monday...Restrictions possible in showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJG/TAC
NEAR TERM...AJG/KL
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...AJG/MPK