Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 261159
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
759 AM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly dry, quiet and mild weather continues across the region
today. A frontal system will bring clouds and showers to the
area tonight through Thursday morning. Dry and sunny conditions
expected for Friday, but it will be breezy and cool. The
upcoming weekend features seasonable temperatures with a chance
for scattered rain showers on Saturday, with dry and mostly
sunny weather returning on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
650 AM Update

No significant changes at this time. It is starting off milder
this morning as high clouds have overspread the region. The
Marine layer of lower clouds is on schedule moving into the
southern Catskills and parts of NE PA at this time.

315 AM Update

Our area will be in between weather systems much of the day
today. There are high clouds gradually spreading in from the
west, with a marine layer and low level stratus clouds impeding
from the east. The low clouds are forecast to impact mainly the
Poconos east of the Wyoming valley, and southern Catskills this
morning into the early afternoon hours. Eventually these lower
level clouds may spread further NW toward the Twin Tiers and
portions of Central NY by late afternoon and evening. The high
cirrus clouds remain thin this morning, with filtered sunshine
expected, but gradually thicken up later in the afternoon. The
overall story for today will be increasing clouds, slightly
breezy southeast winds at 8-15 mph, but mild temperatures are
forecast well into the 50s for most locations.

By evening some light rain showers start to spread into the region
from the west along an occluded frontal boundary. Scattered
rain showers continue overnight, with the highest PoPs and QPF
across Central NY where up to two-tenths of an inch or rain
could fall. It will be mild overnight, with the breezy southeast
winds continuing...overnight lows only dip down into the upper
30s to lower 40s over the region.

There is then some uncertainty in forecast specifics during the day
on Wednesday. There are differences in the amount and timing of rain
in the latest hi-res CAMs (HRRR, RAP, 3km NAM). Used a blend of the
all of these and the latest NBM to place PoPs and QPF as best as
possible. Right now, it looks like there will be some dry time, and
also periods of rain...again specific hours for this remains uncertain.
The highest chances for rain appear to be along and east of the
I-81 corridor where likely PoPs were continued in the forecast.
Back to the west, it fades to just chance PoPs over the Finger
Lakes and Central Southern Tier. QPF amounts are again ranging
from a few hundreths to perhaps two-tenths of an inch over the
Catskills/Poconos during the day. With the breaks in the
rainfall and perhaps even a few, occasional breaks in the
overcast, temperatures still warm up into the mid-50s to lower
60s...this is about 5 to 10 degrees above average.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
305 AM Update...

A cold front will slowly push through the region Wednesday night and
Thursday. This front will bring rain showers to the region. During
the overnight hours Wednesday night, snow could mix in with rain in
the higher elevations where temperatures will be cooler. Southerly
flow will advect moisture northward along the coast Thursday. As a
result, chances for showers will increase across NEPA, the
Catskills, and far eastern portions of the Southern Tier. There is
some uncertainty with where the moisture axis sets up. The GFS and
NAM brings the moisture axis into our region, but the ECMWF is
much farther east with it. For this update, a blend of the
previous forecast, NBM, and WPC guidance was used for QPF
amounts. Showers move out Thursday night, though there is a low
chance that some lingering showers could result in a dusting of
snow in the higher elevations of the Catskills.

Temperatures Wednesday night will range form the low 30s to mid 40s
with the warmest temps being in NEPA. Highs on Thursday will only be
in the 40s. Then with cooler air filling in behind the front, temps
fall below freezing for most of the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
305 AM Update...

The end of the week will be quiet as high pressure will be present.
A weak system will pass southwest of the region this weekend, but
will be close enough for some spotty showers, mainly late Saturday
and into the overnight hours. Rain will be the main ptype, but
there may also be rain/snow mix, or just snow during the
overnight hours. While some guidance has a lingering shower or
two early Sunday, conditions will dry out as high pressure takes
back control. The start of next week will also be quiet, though
the next system may be knocking on our door by late Monday.
There are timing differences between model guidance with this
system, so NBM guidance was favored for now. Highs this period
will be in the 40s and 50s with Monday looking to be the warmest
day during this period. Overnight temperatures will be 20s and
30s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
655 AM update

VFR conditions prevail for most of the taf sites through the day
today. The only exception will be AVP which will see occasional
MVFR/Fuel Alt restrictions on the edge of a marine layer of
clouds. Then, Fuel Alt CIGs look to prevail at AVP heading into
this evening, overnight and eventually even IFR toward early
Wednesday morning.

The marine layer is trending weaker with it`s westward push
later today. Therefore, BGM is on the edge between VFR
conditions and scattered MVFR cloud deck after about 15-18z;
it`s possible these MVFR clouds could be bkn at times, with a
Ceiling developing, but not enough confidence to show this in
the taf for BGM at this time. Eventually cloud bases and CIGs do
come down to MVFR by this afternoon at BGM, then falling to
Fuel Alt and perhaps IFR by midnight as the marine layer clouds
thicken and lower after sunset.

ELM, RME and ITH are VFR through the day today, with the marine
layer clouds merging with incoming clouds from the west and
forming an MVFR CIG tonight; perhaps becoming Fuel Alt late in
this taf period.

SYR looks to stay VFR for much of this taf period, with MVFR
restrictions becoming possible at the end of this taf period,
early Wednesday morning...along with a few rain showers too.

Winds will be generally 8-15 kts out of the east-southeast for
much of the taf period. A few gusts to around 20 kts possible.

Outlook...

Wednesday & Wednesday night...Occasional restrictions possible
in rain showers, especially during the day on Wednesday.

Thursday...Mainly VFR west. Restrictions possible in rain/mist
for AVP, BGM and perhaps RME. (Low to moderate confidence)

Friday...VFR (High confidence)

Saturday...Mainly VFR (Moderate confidence)

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...MJM
SHORT TERM...BTL/KL
LONG TERM...BTL
AVIATION...MJM


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