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000
FXUS61 KBGM 142101
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
501 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure and a cold front will move through the region
tonight bringing a round of showers and some thunderstorms. High
pressure builds into the region Monday and Tuesday before
another low pressure system brings our next chance of showers
for Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A band of showers and a few thunderstorms has developed across
the region late this afternoon. As this band works into NE PA by
this evening, some instability is still modeled to work into
the region. Instability looks sufficient enough to enhance the
thunderstorms to the point where hail and gusty winds are
possible. As far as modeling is concerned the 15Z RRFS appears
to have a much better handle over the NAM and the latest HRRR.

Clouds look to linger tonight with a light west to northwest
wind keeping the moisture around. Also this will limit how cool
it gets tonight with most locations staying in the 40`s and low
50`s. Sunshine should still be able to break through the clouds
in the afternoon as high pressure builds into the region with
temperatures rebounding close to 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
230 PM Update...

High pressure will remain in control through Tuesday and most of
Tuesday night, keeping conditions dry and mild. Skies will stay
mostly sunny for most of the day, though cloud cover will increase
overnight as the next system moves in. A warm front approaches the
region Wednesday morning and passes through late in the day. Ahead
and along this front will be showers. Overnight, a cold front
approaches the region with more rain and a slight chance for
thunderstorms. Instability looks limited, so there is not a concern
for strong thunderstorms at this time.

Highs will be in the 60s both days. Lows Tuesday night will be in
the 30s and 40s but milder conditions are expected Wednesday night
as temps only fall into the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
230 PM Update...

Showers continue during the daytime hours Thursday as the cold front
passes through. An upper-level low over Central Canada will drift
eastward late in the week. Prior to its arrival, there will likely
be a break as a ridge of high pressure makes a quick appearance
Thursday night into Friday morning, though have kept a chance for
showers in there for timing differences between guidance. There is
quite a bit of uncertainty as to what happens with this upper low.
With it will be a stronger cold front that brings much cooler air
into the region. Some lake showers will develop behind the front.
Despite cooler conditions, temperatures should remain warm enough
for just rain. Similarly to the previous forecast, mentionable PoPs
are present Friday and Saturday. After that, PoPs are just a slight
chance as drier conditions work into the region Saturday night into
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mainly VFR with brief MVFR/IFR showers through mid afternoon at
all TAF sites. A band of showers and scattered thunderstorms
looks to develop somewhere between KITH/KRME line to a KELM/KBGM
line. The highest likelihood of any thunderstorms is still at
KAVP where the potential for gusty winds is present with timing
in the TEMPO from about 21-01Z that will be narrowed a bit with
future AMD`s.

MVFR ceilings are likely to form tonight for all NY TAF sites
overnight then slowly lift to VFR by 16Z or so on Monday.


Outlook...

Monday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday through Friday: Chance of showers each day with
restrictions possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...JTC/MWG
SHORT TERM...BTL
LONG TERM...BTL
AVIATION...MWG