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000
FXUS64 KBRO 221752 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1252 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

A mid to upper level disturbance approaching from the west will move
over Deep South Texas today. The combination of lift and ample
moisture will support another round of convection today. Scattered
showers with embedded thunderstorms are expected to develop and move
from west to east across the region today. Leaned towards a blend of
the NBM and ConsShort for POPs for today into tonight.

Temperatures will remain well below normal by around 10-15 degrees
today due to the cooler airmass in place and the abundant cloud
cover. Highs today should range from the upper 60s across the Rio
Grande Plains to the lower 70s elsewhere. Cooler than normal tonight
with overnight lows falling into the upper 50s across the Northern
Ranchlands to the low to mid 60s elsewhere. Warmer on Tuesday with
highs in the low to mid 60s, except for the 70s at the beaches.

A Moderate Risk of Rip Currents are expected through the period
due to the persistent elevated seas and long period swells.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Dry and tranquil weather conditions will prevail through the long-
term forecast period with influences from a surface high in
place. Aided by south-southeast winds, the warmth and humidity
will make a return this week with temperatures creeping up each
day. A tightening pressure gradient will result in breezy
conditions developing Thursday and persisting through next
weekend. The long-term period start off Wednesday with high
temperatures ranging between the mid 80s to lower 90s. By Saturday
and Sunday of next weekend, daytime high temperatures are
expected to range fro the lower 90s to near 100F. Overnight low
temperatures are expected to be in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

A cluster of showers and thunderstorms are currently moving
across the Rio Grande Valley impacting all three TAF sites.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue into the
afternoon, slowly transitioning to mostly rain later this
afternoon. CAM guidance varies on end time for showers and
thunderstorm. The highest confidence for end time is around 0z,
though some improvement is expected before then. Rain looks to
clear this evening with VFR to MVFR ceilings continuing overnight.
Light to moderate northerly winds are expected to shift easterly
later this afternoon and southeasterly tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 344 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Now through Tuesday...Moderate northeast winds and high seas prevail
along the Lower Texas Coast early this morning. A Small Craft
Advisory remains in effect for the Gulf Waters (0-60 NM) until 7 AM.
Winds will continue to diminish and seas will slowly subside through
the rest of the period as as high pressure slowly shifts eastward.
Operators of Small Craft Should Exercise Caution on the Gulf Waters
today due to elevated seas. Easterly flow will develop later today
becoming southeasterly tonight into Tuesday.

The long-term period starts off Tuesday night into Wednesday with
favorable marine conditions featuring light to moderate winds and
seas. Thursday through next weekend, marine conditions become
more adverse as winds strengthen out of the south-southeast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             73  65  81  73 /  30  10  10   0
HARLINGEN               72  62  82  70 /  30  10  10   0
MCALLEN                 72  63  83  72 /  40  10  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         70  61  83  70 /  40  10  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      72  68  77  74 /  30  20  10   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     74  65  80  71 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...60-BE