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000
FXUS62 KCAE 120615
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
215 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy winds will continue through Friday. Drier, warmer
weather fills in behind the front for the upcoming weekend and
early next week as high pressure and upper ridging move over
head.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Upper trough axis moving through the region early this morning
will begin clearing out the cloud cover as drier air begins working
its way into the region at all levels.

Today: A well mixed boundary layer along with a tight pressure
gradient will be present today, helping to produce both strong
synoptic winds and associated wind gusts. Lake Wind Advisory
will remain in effect throughout the daytime hours. As for
rainfall chances, that will remain low for much of the day for
the forecast area. However there is one fly in the ointment late
this afternoon. There is a trailing upper low/shortwave moving
out of the mid Mississippi River Valley this morning that will
be moving through the central Appalachians and southeastern
States late this afternoon/early evening. Although moisture
remains limited, this trough may bring enough moisture along
with it, along with colder temperatures aloft, to help produce
some isolated to scattered shower activity across the northern
Midlands and Pee Dee region. Main time frame for any activity
looks to be between 4 pm and 8 pm. Model guidance does show the
potential for this activity, and will include slight chance pops
during this time frame across the northern third of the cwa.
Any qpf amounts will be light. Afternoon temperatures slightly
cooler than normal, with highs in the low to middle 70s.

Tonight: Shortwave moves east and a return to dry conditions
across the entire cwa. Pressure gradient will begin to weaken
some overnight, allowing winds to finally begin to weaken some.
Winds will still be gusty through the night though, with wind
gusts between 15-20 mph still possible. Overnight lows drop into
the upper 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Sunny and dry weather conditions are expected this weekend.
Winds aloft will be out of the northwest as strong ridging
develops over the Intermountain West and moves east on Sunday.
At the surface, the pressure gradient will weaken on Saturday as
high pressure builds in and then passes to our south on Sunday.
Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal on Saturday
despite abundant sunshine. Surface winds shift to the southwest
on Sunday resulting in increasing temperatures and moisture with
above normal temperatures expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Dry weather is expected to continue through the extended. Upper
ridging passes overhead on Tuesday with a shortwave passing to our
north Wednesday night followed by zonal flow to end the period.
Meanwhile, surface high pressure will be anchored near Bermuda
promoting southwesterly winds across the forecast area. This will
result in well above normal temperatures and increasing dewpoints,
especially later in the week. While skies will be mainly sunny on
Monday, more clouds are expected during the mid-week as the
aforementioned shortwave approaches.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Main concerns this forecast period continue to be the strong
winds.

Main upper trough moving east of the region today, with a
secondary trailing upper low moving through later this
afternoon/early evening. Drier air will be overspreading taf
locations today, creating vfr conditions. Skies will turn mostly
clear across the CSRA sites of AGS/DNL through the period.
Further north across the Midlands sites, isolated to scattered
mid-level clouds possible, especially this afternoon as the
trailing upper low begins moving through. Winds will continue to
be a problem. With well mixed low levels, along with a tight
pressure gradient, stronger winds will be able to mix down to
the surface. Sustained winds between 12-22 knots through the
period, with wind gusts up to 30 knots. Winds may begin to
weaken some late in the taf period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR conditions.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ040-
     063>065-077.

&&

$$