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000
FXUS61 KCAR 131932
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
332 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves across the region tonight. Low pressure
tracks through the area Sunday night. High pressure builds
Monday into Wednesday and remains over the area into late week.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Instability parameters have increased with 12Z
analysis and guidance. The best instability is currently
occurring in northern Aroostook County. The situation seems
more appropriate for early May than early April. Over 500 J/kg
of SBCAPE was observed earlier this afternoon with fairly
decent shear values. A compact negatively tilted upper trough
and an approaching cold front are enhancing lift. 925mb temps
remain above 10C while strong cooling is occurring from H7 to
H5, producing nearly 7C mid-lvl lapse rates. The low minus 20C
threshold has enabled numerous thunderstorms this afternoon
while the low freezing level has enabled reports of graupel with
several stronger cells. Will maintain the area with mention of
isolated thunder and small hail/graupel into early this evening to
include northern Washington County as well as northern/central
Penobscot and NW Aroostook. While overall QPF values are not
significant or are PW values, convective activity has produced locally
heavy downpours.

With the loss of heating this evening, thunderstorm activity
will end, but showers will continue with the upper trough/cold
frontal passage before midnight. One to two tenths of rainfall
is expected in northern zones while just a few hundredths will
fall in the Bangor area. The cold front will bring lows tonight
back into the 30s after record high lows last night.

Low level moisture will maintain generally cloudy skies tonight
and the clouds will continue Sunday morning in northern zones.
Downsloping with the west winds will generate more sun for
Bangor and Downeast. Eventually, the clearing will spread north.
The downsloping winds will produce another day of highs in the
upper 50s for Bangor and Downeast. The offshore winds will mean
a warmer day on the coast. Further north, there is enough cold
air advection to drop Sunday highs some 10F from readings today.

By late Sunday, clouds with another approaching shortwave will
enter southwestern portions of the forecast area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Models show a weak system passing south of the area Sunday night
into early Monday morning. The GFS, NAM, and ECMWF all bring a
quick bit of light rain to much of the area during that time.
However, the CMC and RGEM bring very little QPF with this
system. Thus, decided to cap PoPs at high chance for now. A few
snowflakes may mix in at the highest elevations, but no
accumulation is expected.

Mainly dry weather expected Monday through Tuesday. However, an
upper-level trough will still keep some low-level moisture
around in the North. This could produce an isolated rain shower
or two in the North each afternoon. There should at least be
some cumulus clouds that develop with the daytime heating. Highs
during the short-term will mostly be in the 50s, approaching 60
degrees around Bangor. Lows will mainly be in the 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure builds in for Tuesday night and Wednesday. This
will provide dry weather for that time and sunshine for
Wednesday. Given this, decided to go above NBM guidance for
temperatures on Wednesday, and below guidance for dew points.

A system will move eastward from the Great Lakes late in the
week. Models still disagree on whether a triple point low will
pass close enough to bring rain to the area on Thursday. Thus,
continued to lean on the NBM, which produced chance PoPs.
Guidance is in better agreement on an occluded front crossing
the area Friday into Saturday. High enough confidence to go with
low-end likely PoPs for rain at least for late Friday into
Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions will give way to MVFR cigs and tempo
MVFR vis in showers this afternoon and evening. The showers will
be associated with a cold front that will turn winds from
southeasterly to westerly tonight. Speeds will generally be


SHORT TERM:
Sun night: VFR early. MVFR/IFR possible in any -SHRA. Light
southerly winds.

Mon - Mon night: Improving to VFR across all terminals.
Lingering -SHRA possible across northern terminals. W winds 5
to 10 kts gusting to 20 kts.

Tues: Mainly VFR across all terminals, though brief MVFR/IFR
possible over northern terminals in -SHRA. W winds 10 to 15 kts
gusting 20 to 25 kts.

Tues night - Wed: VFR across all terminals with cigs trending
towards SKC. NW winds 5 to 10 kts.

Wed Night - Thu: Mainly VFR for Wed Night. Trending towards
MVFR on Thu with some -SHRA. E-SE winds 5 to 10 kts, gusting 15
to 20 kts Thu.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: The Small Craft Advisory will remain in place through
Sunday. West winds will increase tonight with a cold frontal
passage and a few gusts may reach up to 30 kt. Seas will
continue to diminish slowly. Current buoy obs are still showing
some south swell over 11 feet. Expect these swells will drop to
around 7 feet by Sunday evening. Fog is not forecast tonight or
tomorrow.


SHORT TERM: Seas subside below Small Craft Advisory levels on
the intra-coastal levels by Sunday evening and remain there
through midweek. On the outer-waters, Small Craft Advisory may
need to be extended through Sunday night and possibly Monday.
This is due to seas approaching 6 feet Sunday night and 5 feet
on Monday. Seas subside below SCA criteria on the outer waters
by Monday night and remain there through midweek. Winds remain
sub-SCA through the middle of next week.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$


Near Term...MCW
Short Term...Clark
Long Term...Clark
Aviation...MCW/Clark
Marine...MCW/Clark