Extended Streamflow Prediction
Issued by NWS

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FGUS64 KTUA 041457
ESPCO

Water Supply Outlook                                             April 4, 2024


ABRFC will be using the 1991-2020 AVERAGE runoff volume as our Normal at each point.

March snowfall was plentiful across the Upper Arkansas and Canadian Basins. This brought the snowpack to above normal levels in many areas. The overall snowpack is near normal or above normal throughout both basins. The runoff season, which started March 1 in the Canadian Basin, is delayed this year with the cold and snowy weather pattern. The runoff season started April 1 in Colorado.

Seasonal runoff (April-September) is forecast to be 102 percent-of-average for the Arkansas River at Salida and 101 percent-of-average below Pueblo Reservoir. Runoff from Grape Creek, and the Cucharas and Huerfano Rivers is forecast to be 74, 88, and 82 percent-of-average, respectively. Chalk Creek is forecast to provide 108 percent-of-average runoff.  Runoff from the Purgatoire River is forecast to be 76 percent-of-average.

In New Mexico, seasonal runoff (March-June) from Rayado and Ponil Creeks is
forecast to be 79 and 65 percent-of-average, respectively. The Vermejo and
Cimarron Rivers are forecast to be 61 and 77 percent-of-average, respectively.

Water-year-to-date precipitation (October-March) in the mountain headwaters of Colorado is above median, overall. Reports range from 85 percent-of-median at Apishipa to 154 percent-of-median at Porphyry Creek. Snowpack above Salida, as measured by (NRCS) SNOTEL sites, is 117 percent-of-median snowpack. Snowpack in the Cucharas and Huerfano basins is 121 percent-of-median. In the Purgatoire River basin, the snow pack is at 114 percent-of-median.

New Mexico`s water-year-to-date precipitation is below median. Reports range from 72 percent-of-median at Red River Pass to 100 percent-of-median at Palo. The snowpack in the Canadian River basin is at 186 percent-of-median as of April 1. The typical snowmelt of March has been delayed slightly in the Canadian Basin.

Reservoir storage in the Arkansas River system is 111 percent-of-median above Pueblo Reservoir and 86 percent-of-median below the resorvoir.  The upper reservoirs are at 115 percent of last year`s total.  The lower reservoirs are at 184 percent of last year`s total.

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issues three-month temperature and precipitation outlooks for the nation. The outlook for April through June calls for increased chances of above normal temperatures in the Arkansas and especially the Canadian Basins. The outlook calls for equal chances of above, below, or near normal precipitation across mountainous areas of Colorado and increased chances of below normal precipitation across much of New Mexico.


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