726
FXUS64 KCRP 111751
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1251 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 831 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Stalled theta-e boundary that straddles the BRO/CRP forecast area
border is producing isolated showers and thunderstorms in southern
Duval, Jim Wells, and Kleberg counties. Updated the pops a bit as
the northeastern progression this morning will probably make the
coverage scattered (30-40%) in that area, which will progress
north along the Coastal Bend into the northern Brush Country and
Victoria Crossroads regions by the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Key Messages:

 Low to medium chance for showers and storms today and tomorrow

 Coastal Flood Advisory in effect through this afternoon

MSAS analysis this morning depicts a weak frontal boundary draped
just south of the region. This boundary will slowly drift a bit
further south this morning before slowly lifting north through the
day. Water vapor imagery reveals an upper low churning across the
Desert Southwest as well as a few ripples in the southwesterly
flow currently in place aloft. As the front retreats back to the
north, moisture will increase across the region. PWATs will range
from 1.8-2.1" by this afternoon. This surge of moisture will lead
to a 20-30% chance of showers and thunderstorms through this
evening, generally east of Highway 281.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over the
mountainous terrain of Mexico as another shortwave ejects across the
region. Several of the recent CAMs carry some of these storms across
the Rio Grande and into the Brush Country around midnight. Forecast
soundings reveal CAPEs around 1500-2000 J/kg and shear around 50
knots. DCAPE values over 1000 J/kg favor a wind threat in additional
to hail. Any convection that materializes will gradually fizzle
out as it moves across the Coastal Plains. SPC currently has our
northwestern counties in a Marginal Risk for Severe Thunderstorms
today.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase into the 20-50% range
on Sunday as the upper low begins to lift across the Southern
Plains. Ample moisture remains in place along with rather high CAPE
values. However, a respectable CAP appears to be in place which will
act against our convective potential.

Went ahead and issued a Coastal Flood Advisory for this morning`s
high tide cycle. Tide levels are currently running about a foot
above normal which puts us around advisory criteria by this
morning`s high tide. PETSS guidance hints at us nearing 1.8-2` MSL
as a persistent easterly wind continues along with 7s periods at
buoy 19.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Key Messages:

 Low to moderate chance for showers and storms through Monday, dry
Tuesday, low chance returns Wednesday and Thursday

We start out the long term with southwesterly flow aloft as the
region is sandwiched between a mid-level low over the Great Plains
and a mid-level high over the southern Gulf. As these features
progress eastward, several disturbances kick out from the low across
the region early in the week but it looks like most of the PVA will
be north of our CWA. Another low forms around mid-week, moves across
the Desert Southwest with some additional PVA ejecting out across
much of TX but mostly north of our area. This disturbance will also
send a cold front our way sometime towards the end of the week.
Despite the weak forcing, GEFS ensemble mean PWAT`s are progged to
be around 1.90" well above our norm of 1.35" for this time of year
except for Tuesday as PWAT`s drop to close to normal as the upper
levels dry out.

Showers and thunderstorm chances Sunday night will be low around 15-
20% increasing to a low to moderate (20-45%) chance Monday, with
silent PoP`s Tuesday, a low (20-35%) chance Wednesday/Thursday and
silent PoP`s the remainder of the week.

Afternoon highs through the week will range in the upper 80s to 90s
except for the barrier islands where mid 80s are expected. Overnight
lows during this time will range in the upper 60s to 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

The stalled front south of BRO yesterday, is moving north as a
warm front today. The boundary will serve a focus for showers and
thunderstorms through the afternoon and into the evening (chance
is 15-30%). The moisture return will continue to produce somewhat
hazy conditions through the afternoon and will produce MVFR and
some IFR CIGs overnight. A upper disturbance will bring a chance
(30%) for showers and thunderstorms for the late evening (03z/Sun)
in the Rio Grande Plains and the western Brush Country (COT/LRD).
By Sunday morning, the front is expected to be north of the
forecast, and the upper disturbance near the Victoria Crossroads
(VCT). Showers and thunderstorms may respark before end of the TAF
period (18z/Sun)

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

A moderate to occasionally strong easterly flow will continue
through the day. Winds will regain a southeasterly component as we
head into Sunday. Brief periods of Small Craft Exercise Caution
conditions are likely over our northern waters this afternoon.
Increased moisture and an upper level disturbance will lead to a
20-40% chance of showers and thunderstorms through the weekend.
Hazy conditions are also expected to continue for the next few
days. Weak to moderate onshore flow will persist through Monday
then becomes weak through Tuesday. Onshore flow may become
northeasterly at times increasing to weak to moderate late Tuesday
through the end of the period. Showers and thunderstorm chances
Sunday night will be low around 15-20% increasing to a low to
moderate (20-45%) chance Monday, and a low (20-35%) chance
Wednesday/Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    76  89  77  93 /  10  20  10  30
Victoria          72  86  76  90 /  30  40  20  40
Laredo            75  98  76 101 /  20   0  10  10
Alice             74  92  76  95 /  20  20  10  40
Rockport          76  86  78  88 /  20  30  10  40
Cotulla           75  94  77  97 /  30  10  20  20
Kingsville        75  92  76  94 /  10  20  10  30
Navy Corpus       78  89  79  89 /  10  30  10  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ345-
     442-443-447.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TC
LONG TERM....BF
AVIATION...JSL/86