Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 232007
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
307 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...

(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Key Messages:

- Medium to high chance of wind gusts above 40 mph Sunday afternoon

- Moderate risk of rip currents Sunday

- Likely Coastal Flooding Monday night

With high pressure moving through south Texas, winds have been light
to weak over the region. However, as the high moves offshore this
evening, the onshore winds will slowly increase as the pressure
gradient tightens. This is especially true with the low which will
move into eastern Colorado with a cold front stretched into west
Texas. As the low and front move to the east, the pressure gradient
will continue to tighten increasing the winds enough, that with the
mixing on Sunday afternoon, gusts over 40 mph are expected with the
chances having improved to 50 to 70% over Nueces and Kleberg
counties. So have added a Wind Advisory for those counties through
00z/Mon (Sun 7 pm). With the winds and seas, there is a chance for
coastal flooding by Tonight and Monday afternoon. The PETSS doens`t
quite get as high overnight (Tonight ~300 AM) so it is possible. The
PETSS model for Port A is showing forecasting 1.3 feet above MSL,
with the 10 percentile around 1.4. Local guidance worksheet has that
it is likely for the afternoon. The winds will begin to diminish
overnight as the front and low pressure weaken the gradient. Clouds
move into the region, but the chance for precipitation looks to be
less than 15%.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Key Messages:

- Medium chance of wind gusts over 40 mph Monday morning.
- Low chance of precipitation Monday.
- Coastal flooding concerns by mid-to-late week.

A large upper level trough over the western CONUS coinciding with
the formation of a surface low pressure system over the southern
Plains will lead to strong southerly winds early Monday morning. The
NBM is still hinting at a medium chance of wind gusts greater than
40 MPH. As the trough propagates eastward on Monday, a dryline and a
cold front will traverse the region. The dryline is expected around
Monday morning/afternoon followed by the cold front late Monday into
Tuesday morning. Likelihood of precipitation with this system
remains low at this time (20-30% chance) due to a persistent
atmospheric cap (-300 to -400 J/kg) and limited instability (<1000
J/kg). Prior to these fronts some areas of drizzle and patchy fog
development are possible along the northern Coastal Bend into the
Victoria Crossroads where moisture content is most favorable.

The trough fully moves through mid-week with the reinstatement of
high pressure behind it. East-southeasterly onshore flow will set in
due to this ridging pattern, allowing for increased moisture return
and a gradual warming trend. Highs will top out in the low 70s to
mid 80s, with lows in the low 50s to low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Sfc high pressure ridge, which is moving through Texas this
afternoon will move offshore by evening allowing return flow
overnight. Winds will increase slowly overnight, followed by
lowering CIGs as moisture off the Gulf moves up under the
subsidence inversion. So expecting CIGs to fall to MVFR by
sometime after 08z/Sun to possibly IFR condition 10z/Sun to about
14 or 15z/Sun. Winds look to be strong enough to keep things mixed
in the lower levels to keep the VSBYs from falling to MVFR. Winds
increase and become gusty for from about 14z onward.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Winds will start out this evening onshore with weak to moderate
flow, as high pressure moves through south Texas. Overnight, the
high will move offshore and allow the pressure gradient to tight up,
and increase the winds. Low pressure will move into the Colorado
with a cold front stretched into west Texas. Winds will turn more to
the south and continue to increase as the front approaches. A small
craft advisory is in effect for 1000 AM Sunday through 100 pm on
Monday as the south to southeast wind flow will become moderate to
strong over the Gulf and the Bays. The moderate to strong flow will
continue through Sunday night. A low chance for precipitation
(20-30%) exists on Monday as a cold front moves offshore. Behind
the front, weak to moderate north- northwesterly flow will develop
and continue through Tuesday afternoon before becoming more east-
northeasterly by Wednesday. Onshore flow from east- southeasterly
winds looks to return late Thursday and continue through the
remainder of the long term period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    61  78  69  85 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          57  76  66  80 /   0   0   0  30
Laredo            61  88  64  86 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             59  83  67  86 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          64  76  67  82 /   0   0   0  10
Cotulla           60  86  65  85 /   0   0  10   0
Kingsville        60  81  68  85 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       64  76  69  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ242-243-342-
     343-442.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 1 PM CDT Monday for
     GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255-270-275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JSL/86
LONG TERM....KRS/98
AVIATION...JSL


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