Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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417 FXUS63 KDDC 050824 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 324 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe thunderstorms are expected from mid-day Monday into the afternoon along and east of a line from WaKeeney to Dodge City. - The western limit of severe weather Monday depends on how early in the day storms develop. - Critical Fire Weather conditions are possible over much of the southwest Monday Afternoon. - A mainly dry weather pattern will develop Monday evening and persist for several days. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 316 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024 A swath of warm air advection was moving north from OK this morning, generating showers and thunderstorms that will be approaching the KS state line through sunrise. Southeast counties have the best chances (20-40%) for measurable rain in any given location, although QPF (amounts) would only be a few hundredths of an inch. HREF 4 hr lightning produces about a 40-50 percent chance for thunderstorms over parts of Comanche, and Barber counties this morning. A few lingering showers might be around through the mid morning hours. Cloudy conditions this morning will give way to more sun in the afternoon, as winds become more southerly as the gradient increases due to the retreating Plains surface anticyclone. Gusts in excess of 30 mph will be common west of roughly highway 83 to the Colorado line. Gusts in the western half of the area will intensify after midnight as the gradient strengthens and momentum transfer plays a role with the increasing wind speeds aloft associated with an incoming upper jet into the Central Plains. Monday will be much more windy and warm, as a dryline advances east ahead of a cold front sweeping east to overtake the dryline in the late morning. Models have trended for days for severe weather favorable surface dewpoints to spread north into central Kansas. With steepening lapse rates through a deep layer, and the available shear for organized supercell development near the dryline, the afternoon hours will bring a severe weather risk anywhere east of Scott City to Garden and Liberal line, with the greater risk of high end severe threats like supercell tornadoes farther east into the higher dew point air east of roughly highway 283. A moderate risk outlook (level 4 of 5) has been highlighted by Storm Prediction Center for for Barber county, and portions of Comanche and Pratt counties, implying a 15% chance for a Tornado within 25 miles of a point in those areas. The entire area, west to Dighton , Dodge City and Meade Minneola is in a favorable area for very significant hail in the 2 to 4 inch range (baseballs or larger possible). The negatively tilted trough should provide storm motions off the boundary as opposed to parallel with the boundary, generally increasing confidence for high impact heterogeneous threats. Uncertainty however revolves around how long the individual cells will be in the DDC forecast area as typically the hail risk will be the initial risk for some time before storms are able to become tornadic, as well as time (early or later in the afternoon) of initiation along the advancing dryline/cold front lifting mechanism. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 402 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 The aforementioned, strong upper level trough will eject across the central and northern plains Monday in negatively tilted fashion. The primary surface low will develop across the northern high plains, with a trailing, dry cold front sweeping across western Kansas Monday afternoon. A dry line will exist southward from about the 37th parallel Monday afternoon and the dry cold front(modified by downslope) will rapidly overtake the dryline during the day. Given the negative tilt to the upper level trough, strong mid level cooling around 700mb will take place, leading to a weakening in the capping inversion. While the mid levels will be cooling, the lowest levels will be warming, leading to a steepening of low to mid level lapse rates. The capping inversion over the moist layer will likely have eroded sufficiently for surface based storm initiation as early as noon to 1 PM CDT (17-18 UTC) along a line from WaKeeney to Dodge City. Given the mid level cooling, there is an accompanying mid level backing of the wind between 700 and 500mb, which could lead to a weakness in the hodographs and a lessening of the tornado threat. However, the 0-1 km shear will be quite favorable for rotating storms between 18-21z(1 to 4 pm) before storms move east of Hays and Pratt. Very large hail and damaging winds will likely accompany these storms. The Storm Prediction Center indicates a coverage of 30% combined severe weather risk, including locations from Hays to Coldwater and points east. The latest outlook includes a 10% probability of "Significant" severe weather. Significant severe weather is defined as 75+ mph damaging wind gusts, 2" or larger hail, and/or significant tornadoes (EF2 or greater damage potential). After Monday, a tranquil weather pattern will develop across the central high plains for several days as upper level troughing shifts from the northern plains into the Midwest. Tuesday will still be a mild day, with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s given continued downslope warming. In the absence of significant low level moisture, expect strong diurnal temperature ranges, with highs falling into the lower to mid 70s and lows falling into the 40s by mid-week. Lows could even fall into the high 30s across west central Kansas by late week given the dry air and light winds. However, freezing temperatures are unlikely. Probabilistically, the ECMWF and CMCE ensemble means only show 10-20% probabilities of lows less than 40 across extreme western Kansas, with near 0% chances of 32 degrees or less. However, experience tells us that lows typically get colder near the Colorado state line in these regimes than the various model guidances suggest. Therefore, some readings less than 40 seem more likely to this forecaster at locations such as Syracuse, which is located in a valley. The ECMWF and CMCE ensemble means both indicate an upper level trough forming over the desert southwest next weekend, with continued upper level troughing over the eastern USA. This is a relatively cool and stable pattern. However, increasing mid level moisture along with a mid level thermal gradient could result in areas of light rain by Saturday or Sunday. Both of the ensemble means show only 20-40% chances of rainfall .10" or greater. Thus, the chances for significant rainfall are very low. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 618 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 A warm front will lift to the north through the night switching the winds to the southeast and bring in lower level moisture which will cause mid to low level clouds to form. Cloud ceilings should start to fall between 11-14Z for LBL, DDC, and GCK to MVFR flight category. Winds will increase by 15Z and with the mixing we should see the clouds start to break and celiings increase back to VFR flight category. Winds in the afternoon will be sustained around 15 kts with gusts to 25 kts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 316 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024 A dryline will sweep across the west late Monday morning followed by a cold front in the late morning and early afternoon, reinforcing the dry air and downsloping winds. A combination for low relative humidity and frequent wind gusts in excess of 20 mph may crate critical fire weather conditions for a large portion of the area west of highway 23. A Fire Weather Watch has been posted for the 9 southwesternmost counties for Monday afternoon and early evening. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM...Finch AVIATION...99 FIRE WEATHER...99