281
FXUS63 KDLH 110553
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1253 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chance of rain and thunderstorms departs this evening, some
stronger storms possible before then.

- Chilly night tonight with Frost Advisories in portions of the
Arrowhead, and then a warm weekend with a chance for rain showers
Saturday night into Sunday and then some afternoon thunderstorms
Sunday in NW WI.

- Very dry afternoon relative humidity expected both Saturday and
Sunday, especially across NE MN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

A stout little shortwave is moving across the Northland this
afternoon, throwing rain showers and scattered thunderstorms across
the area. A more stout cold front has led to some gusty northwest
winds upwards of 40mph along the edge of showers with other sporadic
gusty winds falling out of most thunderstorms. Steep low level lapse
rates have led to a widespread blossoming of convective showers and
thunderstorms behind the main low pressure system, which will likely
produce pea sized hail with low freezing levels. Wind will be the
primary threat out of thunderstorms with efficient momentum transfer
of higher winds down to the surface, up to 50mph. The chance of
severe winds of 60mph+ is around 20%, mostly along the I-35
corridor and eastward.

Showers and thunderstorms will dissipate this evening as daytime
heating cools off and the low pressure system pushes to the east. We
should see clearing skies with light northwesterly flow overnight,
allowing temperatures to come back down. Have issued a Frost
Advisory for portions of inland portions of the MN Arrowhead.
Some guidance also suggested cooler temperatures for portions of
NW WI, but have held off on any headlines in that area for now
due to clouds lingering slightly longer there. Speaking of the
cloud cover forecast, we generally expect good clearing
overnight, especially by the time (just after midnight to very
early morning) that peak northern light intensity is expected.
Some partly cloudy skies may linger over the very tip of the
Arrowhead in Cook County and over Iron County on the South
Shore.

Into the weekend, some slight ridging will allow for a large
boost of warm air bringing temperatures in the 60s and 70s
Saturday and Sunday. Saturday afternoon should be sunny, warm,
and dry with ample mixing up to near 750mb. Relative humidities
could fall to around 25-30%, with locally lower amounts down to
20% possible. Winds shouldn`t be too strong Saturday, but
slightly higher winds in north-central Minnesota could lead to
near critical fire weather conditions. A quick shortwave moves
across Saturday night into Sunday, which should bring some
light rain showers. Ensembles show precipitation amounts
trending down for this impulse at most sites across the
Northland, so it will likely just be a light dampening that
folks wake up to Sunday morning. As this impulse sweeps
southeastward there could be some redevelopment of afternoon
showers and thunderstorms over NW WI. Over NE MN however
conditions will likely be fairly dry by Sunday afternoon,
allowing another day of deep mixing to plummet relative
humidities with strong northwest winds. Should humidities and
winds forecast trends continue, a Red Flag Warning may be needed
in north-central and northeast Minnesota.

Through next week, additional disturbances may bring passing
chances of rain and thunderstorms, but no signals at this time
for anything particularly significant.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1254 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Shower activity has ended across the Northland, with
predominately VFR conditions through the TAF period. There still
remains a 10-20% chance for patchy fog to develop later
overnight into the early morning hours today for terminals that
saw rainfall yesterday, but these chances were too low to
include in the TAFs.

Light and variable winds tonight back to westerly in the
morning for most (northwesterly for KHYR), then to southwesterly
during the afternoon and southerly this coming evening. Winds
remain generally light, though a few gusts to 10 to 15 knots are
possible during the peak mixing in the afternoon to early
evening.

A few showers will be possible over far northern and northeast
Minnesota late this morning into afternoon, with an additional
round of scattered showers and a few embedded thunderstorms
moving northwest to southeast across the Northland this evening
and Saturday night associated with an approaching cold front.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Strong northwesterly winds this afternoon will calm overnight,
leaving fairly benign conditions on the lake through midday Sunday,
with northwest to southwest breezes, strongest in the afternoon.
Sunday, stronger northwest winds increase through the day. However,
with warm temperatures on land in the 60s and 70s, the strongest
winds up to 25 knots will likely only be felt closest to shore, and
primarily along the North Shore. A short period of time on Sunday
afternoon may warrant a Small Craft Advisory before winds calm into
Sunday evening and become northeasterly through Monday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MNZ011-012-019.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Levens
AVIATION...Rothstein
MARINE...Levens