579
FNUS21 KWNS 051525
FWDDY1

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1023 AM CDT Sun May 05 2024

Valid 051700Z - 061200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN TO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...

The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments
made based on recent surface observations and trends in high-res
ensemble guidance. Conditions are currently rather benign across
much of the risk area with sub-15 mph winds and RH above 30% due to
lingering cloud cover. However, a dry air mass over central/southern
AZ will spread northeast through the afternoon with increasing winds
as surface pressure continues to fall across the central Rockies.
The onset of elevated/critical fire weather conditions may be as
early as 18 UTC along the AZ/NM border, with widespread
elevated/critical conditions likely by 20 UTC. Regional VWPs are
sampling 30-40 mph winds within the lowest 2 km, which should
manifest at the surface as frequent wind gusts by late afternoon
amid deep diurnal mixing. This appears most probable across southern
NM where cloud cover should be minimal.

..Moore.. 05/05/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0105 AM CDT Sun May 05 2024/

...Synopsis...
Critical fire-weather conditions are expected later today across
portions of the Desert Southwest, particularly from central/western
NM into extreme southeastern AZ. Sustained surface winds around
20-25 mph and relative humidities approaching the single digits are
forecast across the region, collocated with fuels supporting fire
spread. These conditions will be present throughout the afternoon
and evening across the delineated Critical and Elevated areas.

The meteorological setup will be strongly influenced by a potent
upper-level trough moving eastward toward the Desert Southwest
today. The associated surface cyclone -- expected to deepen in the
northern Rockies -- will yield strong westerly surface flow across
AZ/NM. Despite some possible upper-level cloud cover, deep
boundary-layer mixing and drying are anticipated. Surface relative
humidities around 10-15 percent, and perhaps in the single digits in
some locations, are expected by mid-afternoon. These dry and windy
conditions are anticipated across a region with fuels supporting
large-fire spread (e.g., ERCs generally around 70 percent or
greater, increasing with southward extent). These critical
fire-weather conditions are anticipated from mid-afternoon until
sunset, particularly from around Albuquerque south-southwest to the
Chiricahua Mountains.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$