Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 261124
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
624 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light wintry mix likely across northern Missouri this morning.
  Little or no accumulation expected.

- Hard freeze expected Tuesday night/ Wednesday morning. Folks
  with sensitive vegetation should take steps to protect their
  vegetation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 329 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Water vapor imagery with 500mb heights overlaid shows a strong upper-
level storm system moving across the Mid-Missouri Valley. The system
is nearly vertically stacked and as a result will slowly move to the
east-northeast through the morning to early afternoon hours. This
system will bring a light wintry mix to northwestern and northern
Missouri through the morning hours. Snow amounts are expected
to be less than half an inch but there may also be brief periods
of light sleet as there is some convective elements noted on
radar. Light freezing also looks possible in far northwestern
Missouri as there remains an elevated layer of air above
freezing. Ice amounts look very light with a trace to 0.01" and
confined to elevated surfaces.

This system moves away from the region later today with unseasonably
cold air spilling southward in its wake. Normal low temperatures are
generally in the middle to upper 30s across the region. Forecast
lows Wednesday morning are in the lower to middle 20s. This will
result in a hard freeze across the area. It is still early in the
growing season but we are several weeks ahead of normal. So folks
with sensitive vegetation will need to take precautions from these
unseasonably cold temperatures.

Temperatures warm back above normal values for the later half of the
week. Broad upper ridging will build across the middle of the
country and southerly low and mid-level flow will help temperatures
climb into the mid and upper 60s Thursday with mid 70 degree
temperatures spreading over the area Friday. A weak shortwave will
move across the area Friday night, pushing a cold front through the
area. This will cool temperatures some for Sunday and also
result in our next chance for precipitation as that front stalls
in the area ahead of the next, stronger trough moving into the
Southwest. As that trough deepens into the Southwest, stronger
southerly flow will develop and advect richer, deeper moisture
into the area. With the front stalled in the area, that will
provide the low-level forcing for precipitation chances. The
location of the front and the temperature gradient across it
also leads to a fair amount of uncertainty with the forecast
Sunday into Monday. There is a large spread in NBM box and
whisker plots for various points in the area. Some plots show a
20-25 degree spread between the 25th and 75th percentiles on
Monday. The going forecast for highs on Monday is below the 50th
percentile and still has most of the forecast area in the 70s
to lower 80s. But given the large spread, due to the uncertainty
in the location of the stalled front, temperatures could be 10+
degrees cooler in places or 10+ degrees warmer in places.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 619 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Light showers and wintry mix linger over the terminals this
morning bringing low MVFR and IFR CIGs. Precipitation is
expected to taper off this morning; however, lowered CIGs remain
through much of the day. CIGs should rise back above VFR
thresholds after sunset. Winds start the period westerly
gradually turning northwesterly this by midday. Gusts persist
through the daytime hours.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Pesel


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