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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 160559
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1159 PM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 959 PM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024

...High Wind Warning/Advisory and Red Flag Warning have all
expired...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Winds will be on the decrease this evening and will be much
lighter but still a little breezy each afternoon. Temperatures
will be slightly cooler for Tuesday before warming back up into
the 80s to near 90 for the lowlands by Thursday. A back door cold
front could bring a quick break from the heat going into Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024

The main impactful weather over the next week looks to be ending
in the first 6 hours of the short term. Upper low moving through
southern CO will push weak cold front through by early this
evening and upper trough by 06Z. This will allow winds to
gradually decrease through the overnight hours. Will just leave
highlights as is for now. Expect some wind to continue into the
morning hours, especially eastern slopes and keep lows around 50,
but areas west of the Rio Grande could drop into the 30s with some
dry air remaining in place.

Temperatures Tuesday will cool down about 3-6 degrees and winds
will decrease to 5-15 mph as main upper low pushes into the
Midwest and gradient relaxes over the area. Generally zonal flow
for the remainder of the work week will warm temperatures back
above normal with 80s over the lowlands common, even a 90 possible
around KELP and lower Rio Grande Valley around Thursday. Very dry
air remains in place with dew points in the single digits and
teens, so with light winds, overnight lows will be able to drop
nicely.

A weak upper trough moves through Saturday with an upper high
building into the Front Range. This is where models do differ as
the EC is pushing a back door into our NE zones during the day Sat
and then through area Sat night. GFS has this front remaining east
of the area Sat and then pushing to about the Divide overnight.
The upper air pattern, time of the year and support from ensembles
make me lean more toward the GFS/GEFS solution. This also seems
more in line with the NBM temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1159 PM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024

VFR conditions through the period with SKC-SCT250. Surface
winds: East of the Rio Grande Valley west/northwest 12-17G25
knots diminishing to mainly northwest AOB 7 knots after 08Z. Rio
Grande Valley west northwest AOB 7 knots. Blowing dust will remain
aloft most of the night for hazy conditions, but should not impact
horizontal visibilities.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Winds will be on the decrease this evening and over the upcoming
week, will be occasionally low end breezy, but not threatening to
reach critical speeds. RH`s however, will remain low through the
week with westerly winds keeping them in the single digits for the
lowlands and some occasional teens in the mountains. Temperatures
will be slightly cooler Tuesday, but warm back up to about 5-10
degrees above normal by the end of the week. Vent rates the next
couple of days will be Very Good.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  53  81  55  87 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            46  76  54  82 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               44  81  48  87 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               43  78  47  83 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               33  54  37  61 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    45  79  49  84 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              39  70  46  76 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   39  79  44  85 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                38  76  44  82 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       49  79  53  85 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                45  81  44  87 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             44  81  48  87 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               44  73  47  79 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   45  81  50  87 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             44  78  46  83 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           49  78  54  84 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            39  79  42  83 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    41  81  45  86 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 44  79  48  84 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                42  77  47  82 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  39  68  42  76 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                37  66  41  72 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 34  65  39  71 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  38  73  42  77 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                38  79  46  82 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                38  79  43  83 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             29  72  35  77 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   34  74  40  79 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    35  77  41  82 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               32  73  42  78 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  37  75  45  79 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   39  77  45  83 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  40  77  45  83 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           38  79  45  84 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               39  74  48  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...15-Brice