Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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640 FXUS62 KFFC 050521 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 121 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024 ...New 06Z Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 238 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024 At a glance: - Continued waves of showers and thunderstorms expected through Sunday - "Cooler" today across north and east Georgia, temperatures rebound tomorrow Similar to yesterday, conditions at the lower levels remain relatively benign, with the western fringes of a surface high overspreading the Southeast. At the mid-levels, our train of shortwaves continues, packing a bit more oomph than yesterday thanks to meager negative tilts and slightly higher amplitudes. After a brief lull following out rainy start to Saturday, expecting an uptick in afternoon convective activity both today and Sunday, aided partially by the shortwave trough axis swinging through. Thunderstorms today may become weakly organized into quasi-lines along any lingering outflow boundaries/new outflow boundaries from earliest storms, especially south of I-20. MUCAPE looks to reach into the 1000-2000 J/kg range, but unimpressive shear (<20kt bulk) will preclude meaningful chances for widespread severe weather; however, a few storms could become strong to marginally severe. On top of that, PWATs creeping north of 1.5" areawide puts us at approximately the 90th percentile for early May per the SPC`s sounding climatology. Any storms that form are likely to be slow-moving, and will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall, ponding on roads, and perhaps nuisance flooding. Highs today will be slightly cooler than yesterday along and east of I-16/I-75 thanks to increased cloud cover and convective coverage, in the upper-60s to 70s. Elsewhere, expect another day in the 80s. Sunday, marginally unseasonably warm conditions return (5-8 degrees above average), with highs in the 70s for the higher elevations in northeast Georgia and in the 80s to near 90 everywhere else. 96 && .LONG TERM... (Monday morning through next Friday) Issued at 238 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024 As the extended period begins on Monday, a shortwave trough will continue to move northeastward through a quasi-zonal mid level flow pattern, from the Tennessee Valley towards the central Appalachians. As the axis of the shortwave moves north of Georgia, it will provide forcing for showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area. Coverage of thunderstorms will be diurnally enhanced in the afternoon hours. The combination of forcing ahead of the shortwave, diurnal instability, and precipitable water values ranging from 1.4 to 1.7 inches will be sufficient for at least likely PoPs across the majority of the forecast area by Monday afternoon. Some convective is also likely to lingering after sunset and into Monday night. Low-level wind shear and dynamic support appears that they will be located nearest to the axis of the shortwave as it passes north of the forecast area. As such, a widespread severe weather threat is not anticipated, but a few storms each day could become strong and capable of producing locally heavy rain, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. A relatively drier period is expected on Tuesday into Wednesday with a mid-level ridge building over the Southeast. Temperatures will gradually warm under the ridge, with highs climbing a couple of degrees each day and reaching into the upper 80s in north Georgia and low 90s in central Georgia on Wednesday. These temperatures will be between 8-12 degrees above climatological normals. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast to be confined to the far northern tier each afternoon on Tuesday and into Wednesday. By Thursday, an upper level trough will extend from the High Plains to the Four Corners region while subtropical ridging strengthens over the Gulf of Mexico. With a tightening pressure gradient between these features, much of the Southeast will be under strengthening southwesterly flow aloft. Meanwhile, a frontal boundary will advance southward into the Mid-Mississippi Valley region. A series of disturbances traversing the upper level flow is anticipated to overrun the front, which will help increase PoPs and organize thunderstorms across northern portions of Georgia. With a warm and unstable airmass across much of the Southeast lending to plentiful SBCAPE and increased deep-layer bulk shear ahead of the advancing front, the potential for severe weather associated with convective complexes will need to be monitored for Thursday into Friday. King && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 107 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024 IFR cigs likely overnight with some potential for LIFR. Will keep the bkn LIFR in a tempo for now. Fog is also possible, with areas of dense fog to the east of the airfield. Sct cu is expected this afternoon. Will keep the prob30 group in for sct convection this afternoon. Winds will be light/variable overnight and then light SW during the day. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... High confidence all elements. NListemaa && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 63 81 63 86 / 40 60 30 10 Atlanta 65 83 65 86 / 40 50 30 10 Blairsville 60 76 60 80 / 60 60 40 30 Cartersville 63 83 62 87 / 50 60 30 20 Columbus 67 88 65 90 / 30 20 10 10 Gainesville 64 80 64 85 / 40 60 30 20 Macon 66 84 65 88 / 30 20 20 10 Rome 63 85 63 87 / 60 60 30 20 Peachtree City 64 84 63 87 / 30 40 20 10 Vidalia 67 87 67 90 / 30 30 30 20 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...96 LONG TERM....King AVIATION...NListemaa