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000
FXUS63 KFGF 231746
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1246 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The probability for widespread hazardous weather through
  Monday is low (less than 10%).

- Watching dew points and relative humidity values for potential
  near critical fire weather conditions Wednesday.

- Increased rain chances Friday into Saturday with chance for
  isolated thunderstorms.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Showers have mostly moved out of the area as low level lapse
rates have steepened along the leading edge of some 925mb cold
air advection with some new showers forming in west central
Minnesota. Satellite depicts these new mini showers nicely with
these likely persisting as they work south out the area in the
next hour. No major forecast changes aside from tracking the
pops and sky cover to reflect coverage. With the persisting
clouds expecting RH to slightly under perform in west central
Minnesota this afternoon.

UPDATE
Issued at 939 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Showers continue to work off to the southeast this morning with
increasing dry air between 850-700 mb drying out the profile
behind the exiting showers. Winds will continue with 20mph
gusting near 30 through noon as the pressure gradient weakens
with the low drifting southeast. RH still forecast to drop into
the 20-25 percent range in eastern North Dakota this afternoon
once clouds clear though the diminishing winds should prevent
near critical fire weather conditions being reached.


UPDATE
Issued at 653 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

500 mb low is near Park Rapids moving south-southeast. Spin in
clouds noted and showers are to the west and north of the upper
low from Lake of the Woods to east of Fargo. Last of the spotty
showers are in far SE Manitoba and far northeast ND moving
south. So idea of scattered showers in MN fcst area and the RRV
is good with trends indicating them moving out of our forecast
area 16-17z or so. Cloud cover with this is far less extensive
than thought with plenty of clearing holes in cloud cover in E
ND/RRV with thicker cloud cover confined to around the upper low
center. Overall trends of the fcst are good. We are seeing the
NNW winds increase as anticipated within the RRV and E ND with
gusts to 25 kts as pressure rises move into the valley.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

at 08z 500 mb low is located near Grand Forks with spin on radar
noted with showers over the Grand Forks area. This will continue
to move east-southeast thru the early morning hours with
lingering showers spreading more into Minnesota and then exiting
the forecast area by 16z. The question arises is winds this
morning. As upper level low moves away there is a period of NNW
winds that could gust to 35 kts within the Red River valley with
mixed layer up to around 925 mb early this morning rise to 870
mb by 17z. By then the winds aloft do diminish. Also in question
is sky cover/types of clouds. Haven`t seen low clouds form yet
but never discount what happens by 12z. So going with idea of
mostly cloudy this morning most areas then clearing working
southeast thru the aftn. Highs today with late day sun reaching
the low-mid 50s. HRRR did well with sfc temps on Monday and
looks good today. They also are very near NBM 4.1 temps used in
the fcst.

Winds diminish overnight as high pressure ridge moves, with
center of high moving southeast thru far NW Ontario. Winds will
be northeast tonight then turn south-southeast on Wednesday as
high moves farther east. Surface gradient initially isnt that
tight so not expecting a big jump in wind speeds Wednesday. Dry
airmass in place due to high pressure to our north/east, though
driest of dew pts more favored over NE MN. Warming Wednesday
with plenty of sun, with RH values dropping in to the mid 20s
across the area. Winds to be near 10 kts. So borderline near
critical fire weather day Wednesday based on RH values.

A warm Thursday as south winds ramp up into the 20-30 mph range
with higher gusts.  Highs 60s to mid 70s.

Thereafter an unsettled pattern starts as several 500 mb short
waves and surface lows will move northeast from the central
Rockies toward Minnesota. First wave brings chances for rain
into the area Thursday overnight but the highest chances (60-80
percent from northwest to southeast across the area) are Friday
afternoon thru Saturday morning. WPC rain amounts show 0.75
average Baudette to Grand Forks to Jamestown and areas
southeast. NBM 4.1 indicates similar amounts with probs for more
than 0.50 inch at 60-80 percent in the same area. Instability
looks weak as surface low is more southeast MN and instability
focused south of there Friday. But embedded t-storm is possible
so will maintain some mention Friday.

Next wave arrives Sun aftn-Monday but trends are weaker and a
bit farther southeast with this system.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

IFR to MVFR cigs across west central Minnesota continue to move
south with embedded showers in the far southern portion of the
area near DTL to BRD. These will continue south with clouds
clearing by 21-22Z. Afternoon cumulus should form as afternoon
heating kicks in, building a SCT to BKN deck at 3000 to 5000
ft. Winds will diminish as expected with the gusts dropping off
around the time stratus clears this afternoon at 21z with
variable winds overnight turning east then southerly by tomorrow
morning.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TT
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...TT