911
FXUS65 KFGZ 041549
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
849 AM MST Sat May 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry conditions are expected today with breezy
afternoon winds. Winds will continue to increase, peaking on Sunday,
and remaining gusty through much of the week. Isolated showers near
the Arizona-Utah state line on Sunday with most areas remaining dry.
Temperatures will cool slightly on Sunday but warm back up through
midweek. Another trough will keep temperatures cool for the second
half of the week but conditions will remain dry.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The current forecast package is in good shape with
no morning update. It will be breezy today but quite windy on
Sunday. We will likely be hoisting a High Wind Warning (gusts over
60 mph) on Sunday roughly for the area between Flagstaff, Meteor
Crater and Cameron. Much of the rest of the area will be looking
at a Wind Advisory with gust of 40 to 50 mph. Fire weather
concerns will be limited due to fairly recent precipitation and
elevated relative humidity values. The exception will be the area
surrounding St. Johns in east central Arizona where low relative
humidity, strong gusty winds and drying grasses will meet the
criteria for a Red Flag Warning.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 04/12Z through Sunday 05/12Z...VFR conditions
continue through Saturday with FEW clouds above 10,000 feet AGL.
Expect south-southwest winds 15-25 kts beginning ~16/17Z. Winds
remain elevated overnight as mid to upper-level clouds become BKN.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 05/12Z through Tuesday 07/12Z...Mainly VFR conditions
take place on Sunday with a few -SHRA north of I-40. Periods of MVFR
visibility due to blowing dust are highly likely at KINW-KSJN-KRQE
during the afternoon. Expect strong southwest winds sustained
25-35 kts with gusts of 40-55 kts on Sunday. Minor to moderate
mechanical turbulence is likely during this time. Winds decrease
on Monday to 20-30 kts from the west while widespread VFR
conditions return.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Sunday...Dry and mild conditions are
expected today with increasing southwest winds with gusts 20 to 35
mph. Winds will be much stronger on Sunday, with gusts of 40 to 55
mph by late morning with favored downsloping areas gusting to 65
mph. Minimum RH on Sunday will be 10 to 20% across northeast Arizona
which will lead to periods of critical fire weather conditions over
NE Arizona Sunday afternoon.

Monday through Wednesday...West-southwest winds will remain elevated
each afternoon through Wednesday with widespread gusts of 25 to 35
mph. Expect afternoon min RH of 10 to 15%, and overnight RH of 25 to
45%. No precipitation is expected through next week.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
AZZ004>017-039-040.

Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
for AZZ114.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...McCollum/Meola
AVIATION...LaGuardia
FIRE WEATHER...BAK

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff