000
FXUS63 KFSD 120850
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
350 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Expect excellent weather for outdoor activities today through
  this weekend with dry conditions and plenty of sunshine.

- Unseasonably warm weather Saturday through Monday brings highs in
  the 70s and 80s, 20 to 30 degrees above normal for mid April.
  This heat combines with breezy conditions on Saturday and
  Monday to bring periods of elevated fire danger.

- A period of wet weather is expected for Monday evening through
  and Tuesday with a moderate to high (50-80%) chance of at
  least a half inch of rain across the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

TODAY AND TONIGHT: Expect excellent conditions for outdoor
activities today with dry conditions and abundant sunshine. Light
northwest winds will gradually transition to southerly through the
day as weak surface ridging slides slowly east through the Northern
and Central Plains. Despite starting the day in the 30s,
temperatures will climb to 5 to 10 degrees above normal with highs
mainly in the 60s. Pleasant conditions continue into the evening.
Cirrus slide in late tonight with increasing winds, and temperatures
are expected to fall to the 40s by early Saturday morning.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: Tonight`s strong upper ridging sliding through
the Central U.S. sets the stage for a much warmer weekend ahead.
Broad warm air advection kicks in ahead of an approaching, deepening
northern stream clipper. This pattern coupled with mixing into 850mb
temperatures at the 97th percentile of the NAEFS and EPS climatology
for this time of year means high confidence in highs reaching at
least the upper 70s (southwest MN) to the mid 80s (south central
SD). Despite summer heat, dew points will only be in the 40s with
gusty southwest gradient winds. Gusts should peak in the 20s but
could see occasional gusts in the 30s if mixing is slightly deeper
than expected, especially downslope of the MN Buffalo Ridge. Dry air
and breezy conditions will create elevated fire danger Saturday
afternoon, especially near and east of the I-29 corridor where winds
will be strongest.

Despite a weak frontal passage Saturday night, dry and warm
conditions continue Sunday. Winds are much lighter and easterly
Sunday amidst upper ridging and a weak surface high.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY: Monday starts off warm and breezy ahead ahead of
a strong closed upper low tracking from the Four Corners region
toward eastern Nebraska. Despite increasing low level moisture, dry
fuels, unseasonably warm air, and gusts in the 20s and 30s prompt
widespread elevated fire danger Monday afternoon. Tuesday will be
notably cooler and cloudy, but gusty winds will persist.

Rain chances remain quite low (<30%) during the day Monday with
increasing rain chances with warm air advection induced showers and
storms Monday night. The potent system, rivaling the lowest SLP
values of the NAEFS and EPS climatology for this time of year,
brings our best chance for widespread rain so far this year for late
Monday night and Tuesday during the day. However there is still high
uncertainty in potential amounts between potential for dry slotting
at times and also convective activity. Severe weather threat remains
quite low at this stage with the strongest winds aloft (i.e.,
strongest deep layer shear) remaining to our south (southern
Iowa/Nebraska and beyond). However there is certainly potential for
periods of moderate to locally heavy rain with thunderstorms and
isolated 1+ inch amounts by Wednesday, as highlighted by the WPC
Days 4-5 Excessive Rain Outlooks.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND: High confidence in cooler, more seasonal
spring weather for the second half of the week. Low confidence in
rain chances as a stronger northern wave treks into the Northern
Plains, placing the Central Plains in zonal flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1027 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Light
northwesterly winds will transition to southeasterly by Friday
evening.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BP
AVIATION...JM