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000
FXUS64 KFWD 191834
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
Issued by National Weather Service Shreveport LA
134 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...New Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Saturday Night/

The cold front activating thunderstorms later yesterday in
central and eastern portions of the forecast area is now
positioned just south of the region with surface winds at all
sites from the north. Temperatures currently range from the upper
50s to lower 60s in the far north and in the lower 70s in the far
south. Most of the forecast area is mostly cloudy as the
atmosphere remains somewhat saturated in multiple layers aloft to
the north of the boundary. Some breaks in the clouds through the
afternoon are possible, especially in northern and far southern
zones. A few showers are possible in far southern to southeastern
zones this afternoon closer to the frontal boundary, but the onset
of another round of precipitation should hold off until late
tonight in a large majority of locations.

Starting tonight, the previous forecast seems mostly on track with
a weak disturbance embedded in the westerlies aloft approaching
north central Texas and imparting lift to the region along and
north of the boundary, which will likely stall near the far
southern border of the forecast area. There will be elevated
instability (i.e., based above the surface) available to support
increasing shower and scattered thunderstorm development late
tonight through the morning hours tomorrow. Some small, non-
severe, hail cannot be ruled out with these elevated storms. Any
potential for isolated severe storms (with mainly a hail and wind
threat) should be confined to far southern portions of the
forecast area midday tomorrow through tomorrow evening, closer to
the vicinity of the stalled frontal boundary. Heavy rainfall
tomorrow still looks to be the chief concern as the lift from the
aforementioned disturbance, combined with the elevated frontal
boundary and relatively high precipitable water values (~1.5
inches), produces thunderstorm capable of heavy downpours. The
entire forecast area is in a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall
tomorrow through tomorrow night with WPC most likely rainfall
expectations ranging from 1 to 2 inches. Short range ensemble
guidance suggests some locally higher amounts will be possible.
This rain could result in some pockets of flooding and will likely
result in some delayed river rises.

Otherwise, expect not much in the way of a diurnal range tomorrow
with clouds and rain on the north side of the surface front. Lows
tonight will range from the lower 50s north to lower 60s south
with highs tomorrow only 5 to 10 degrees above these marks.
Precipitation should be exiting to the east later tomorrow night
with lows by daybreak Sunday mainly ranging from the middle 40s to
lower 50s.

SHV / BB

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 236 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024/
/Saturday Night Onward/

Rain and occasional elevated thunderstorms will be ongoing
Saturday night across mainly the eastern half of the forecast area
associated with the passage of a shortwave trough. Precipitation
will come to an end Sunday morning as the disturbance heads for
the central Gulf Coast states. Skies will eventually clear from
west to east Sunday afternoon as subsidence strengthens in the
wake of the departing shortwave, allowing for some sunshine by
late afternoon. This should help push temperatures into the 60s
Sunday afternoon. The post-frontal surface ridge will settle
across the region Sunday night. Clear skies, dry air, and light
winds will create ideal radiative cooling conditions, making for a
cool Sunday night with lows in the 40s. Pleasant weather is in
store for Monday as weak ridging builds overhead.

A deepening low over the Great Lakes will help push another cold
front south into the area on Tuesday. The front will stall,
providing a focus for the development of scattered showers and
isolated storms as another shortwave moves through during the mid
to late week period. At this time it looks like the strongest lift
associated with the shortwave (and best rain chances) will be
either Thursday or Friday, depending on which operational model
ends up being the most accurate. Will keep chance to slight
chance POPs in place from late Tuesday through Friday, and narrow
down the time line as better resolution model guidance is
received in the coming days. The upper level pattern will remain
unsettled beyond the extended period as another upper trough
approaches, likely bringing more rain and storm chances next
weekend.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1230 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024/
/18z TAFs/

Satellite imagery from early this afternoon continues to show
mostly cloudy skies across the region. As such, CIGs continue to
fluctuate between low VFR and MVFR for all terminals this morning.
The exception has been for KACT where MVFR CIGs have prevailed.
This will remain the case through the rest of the afternoon and
even into the evening hours. Currently CIGs range from around
020-040 for all the DFW airports while Waco Regional remains
around 020-025. Unfortunately, CIGs will only deteriorate as we
move into the evening and overnight hours with more widespread
MVFR CIGs settling in. Around 20/07z, we have introduced some IFR
CIGs at 009 for all the DFW airports with Waco falling to around
007. Otherwise, looks like some showers and maybe some drizzle
will move in for the DFW airports around 20/10z and have
introduced SHRA and VCTS for this time frame. /33/

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    70  57  59  49  65 /   0  80  90  90   0
Waco                69  60  64  49  62 /  10  60  90 100   5
Paris               65  52  56  47  63 /  10  70  90  80   5
Denton              68  54  58  46  63 /   0  80  90  90   0
McKinney            68  55  58  48  64 /   0  80  90  90   0
Dallas              71  57  60  50  65 /   5  80  90  90   0
Terrell             69  56  59  48  63 /   5  80  90 100   5
Corsicana           71  60  64  50  63 /  10  70  90 100   5
Temple              72  62  67  49  62 /  10  40  90  90   0
Mineral Wells       69  55  59  46  64 /   0  80  90  90   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$