National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KFWD 241701
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1201 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/This afternoon through Thursday night/

Showers and thunderstorms remain along and north of the Red River
near a stalled front. Westerly steering flow is keeping the
majority of activity in Oklahoma but a few showers and storms will
be possible generally north of the Highway 380 corridor. Moisture
will remain below 700 mb through Thursday, keeping plenty of
clouds in place, although some breaks in the clouds will allow
the sun to make brief appearances. The combination of steady low
level warm air advection and a bit of solar heating will allow
afternoon temperatures to warm into the middle 70s to the lower
80s.

The frontal boundary will lift slowly northward tonight through
Thursday morning but still may produce a few showers and storms
north of the 380 corridor. Otherwise, it will be mostly cloudy and
humid with lows in the 60s. Most of Thursday will be rain-free but
remain cloudy with strong low level warm/moist advection
continuing. Large scale ascent will increase Thursday night once
an upper trough lifts towards the Central Plains. Storms will
develop on the dryline across West Texas during the afternoon and
evening, spreading eastward through the night. These storms will
likely begin to impact about the northwestern half of the
forecast area before sunrise Friday. Some strong to severe storms
will be possible, especially across the far northwestern
counties. Instability and shear will be sufficient for storm
organization with hail and damaging winds being the primary
hazards. This severe weather threat will spread eastward on
Friday which is detailed in the long term discussion below.

79

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 341 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024/
/Thursday Night Onward/

Several days of active weather are in store this weekend. No
single day will be a complete washout, but given the multiple
rounds of storms expected, make sure to plan your weekend
activities accordingly.

A mostly precipitation free Thursday night will give way to
increasing rain chances come Friday morning. A shortwave will be
emerging out of the Rockies, spreading rapid height falls across
North and Central Texas. An attendant cold front will move east
through the night, knocking on North/Central Texas` door step come
sunrise. Although the bulk of the ascent is expected to remain
well north of our region, an open warm sector coupled with the
incoming cold front will likely lead to the development of
thunderstorms. With 1500+ J/kg of CAPE in place and effective
shear of 40+ knots, a few strong to severe thunderstorms cannot be
ruled out by mid morning. Through the afternoon, instability is
expected to gradually build as steeper mid-level lapse rates move
into our region. This should lead to additional thunderstorm
development out ahead of the slow-moving front. The severe weather
threat will continue through the afternoon as large hail,
damaging winds and a tornado or two will be possible.

As the shortwave moves away from the region, precipitation
chances will significantly decrease Friday night. Southerly winds
will help push the front west/northwest overnight. Its new
placement will dictate where storms fire off Saturday with the
arrival of the next shortwave. Guidance continues to keep much of
North and Central Texas in the warm sector with a few warm air
advection showers and storms by mid-morning. The shortwave will
once again send a weak front eastward, catching up to the dryline
and likely leading to another round of vigorous convection. With
mid-level lapse rates of 8 degC/Km and 1500+ J/Kg of instability,
strong to severe storms will once again be possible. Threats will
be large hail, damaging winds. The severe weather threat will
persist into Saturday night as storms shift eastward.

The front will stall on Sunday, providing yet additional chances
for showers and storms across our region. A few strong to severe
thunderstorms will once again be possible mainly east of I-35 on
Sunday, where sufficient instability and shear will be present.
The storm chances will linger through Monday before the front
retreats back to the northwest.

Weak ridging aloft will move across the region on Tuesday,
leading to a dry day across the region. The precipitation-free
conditions will be short-lived as another system approaches the
area by Wednesday with additional showers and storms in the
forecast.


Hernandez

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

Ceilings will be a bit of a challenge to pinpoint through this
evening with the Metroplex TAF sites bouncing between MVFR and
VFR. Since low level moisture is fairly deep, we don`t anticipate
much scattering to occur, but there will be periods with broken
clouds with bases around 6000 ft. Waco will likely see IFR
ceilings lift above 1000 ft early this afternoon but bases may
struggle to get higher than 3000 ft.

The low level jet will increase tonight in response to the next
approaching upper trough. The result will be a resurgence of
moisture with low end MVFR to high end IFR ceilings at all TAF
sites through Thursday morning. The stronger wind should limit
visibility restrictions overall but some patchy fog with 3 to 5
mile visibility is possible early Thursday morning.

All appreciable showers/storms will remain well north of the TAF
sites through this forecast cycle but some brief sprinkles or
light rain will be possible. Better storm chances are expected
overnight Thursday though Friday.

A south wind will remain in the 7 to 13 knot range through
Thursday along with some gusts as high as 20 knots, especially
Thursday.

79

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    80  68  80  68  83 /  10  10   5  50  80
Waco                81  68  79  69  78 /   0   0   0  20  70
Paris               78  64  81  68  76 /  40  30  20  20  90
Denton              78  67  79  67  83 /  20  20  10  60  70
McKinney            77  68  80  68  80 /  20  20  10  40  80
Dallas              80  68  80  69  82 /  10  10   5  40  80
Terrell             79  66  80  68  78 /  10  10   5  20  80
Corsicana           79  68  81  70  80 /   5   0   0  10  80
Temple              80  67  80  68  80 /   5   0   0  10  60
Mineral Wells       83  66  80  66  86 /   5  20   5  70  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$