Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
227 FXUS65 KGGW 011924 AFDGGW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 124 PM MDT Wed May 1 2024 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Rain shower chances with isolated thunderstorms will diminish in most areas after sunset this evening. - Cold front Thursday morning brings rain and snow showers with isolated thunderstorms. The chances for rain and snow showers continue through Friday. - Nighttime temperatures will drop below freezing in many areas tonight through Friday night. - Another round of rain showers are expected next week, starting late Sunday. Some places could receive about an inch late Monday into Monday Night. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A slow moving upper level low near the US/Canada border will finally lift northeast away from the area late Friday. This will allow for a break in the action before another upper low moves in on Sunday. Look for isolated showers and thunderstorms late today to diminish this evening then more widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms to move in Thursday. It will be a cool day, and cool enough that snow levels will lower for at least a mix in the Little Rockies of southwest Phillips County, lesser of a chance for the remainder of Phillips and northern Valley counties. Temps then warm into the weekend before the next low moves in. This next system moves in from the west and closes off nearby Monday/Monday Night. The deterministic forecast is calling for an inch of rain for the eastern and central zones. This should be beneficial as April was drier than normal for these areas. Temperatures will not be as cool as with the current system. TFJ CONFIDENCE AND POTENTIAL DEVIATIONS FROM BASE FORECAST: Confidence is high on the showers behind the cold front on Thursday but whether it will be rain or snow showers at a given point and time will depend on temperatures. Low confidence on the possibility of thunderstorms on Thursday. Medium confidence the rain/snow showers continuing through Friday. High confidence on the dry weather on Saturday and rain mainly on Monday that lingers through most of next week. Lower confidence on amounts and timing of the rainfall. TFJ && .AVIATION... LAST UPDATED: 1920Z (1:20 PM) FLIGHT CAT: VFR, possible MVFR Thursday afternoon. DISCUSSION: Cumulus clouds this afternoon will stratify to mid- level clouds this evening. Then low clouds will move in behind a cold front Thursday morning with MVFR ceilings possible. An unstable atmosphere this afternoon and evening will allow for scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. WIND: WSW 5 to 15 knots this afternoon. Winds will vary from SE to SW less than 10 knots tonight, then increase from the NW Thursday to 15 to 25 kts by the afternoon. TFJ && .GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow