000
FXUS63 KGID 250554
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1254 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms are possible (around a 20% chance)
  late tonight into Thursday morning mostly across north central
  Kansas.

- Severe storms are more likely (30% to 40% chance) Thursday
  evening and Thursday night. The main threats are large hail
  and damaging winds with a low threat of tornadoes.

- Strong to severe storms will remain possible (around a 20%
  chance) mainly Friday morning across eastern and northern
  portions of the forecast area.

- Rain and storm chances (up to 90% chance Saturday night)
  increase again over the weekend areawide.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 347 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Today and tonight...

An upper ridge is over the Rocky Mountains and the plains states.
Southeast to south winds are across south central and central
Nebraska and north central Kansas. High temperatures today will be
in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Chances of showers and thunderstorms
(up to near 60%) will increase this evening into tonight. Low
temperatures tonight will range from the mid 40s to mid 50s with
mostly cloudy skies and southeast to south winds.

Thursday and Thursday night...

An upper trough over the Rocky Mountains will begin to move over the
Central Plains on Thursday. Winds will be gusty out of the southeast
on Thursday. Upper lift and moisture will increase across the area
on Thursday leading to continued chances (up to around 75% chance)
of showers and thunderstorms. Strong to severe storms may occur
early Thursday morning, especially across north central Kansas.
Another round of severe storms is more likely beginning late
Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Large hail and damaging
winds will be the main threats, although there will be a low threat
of tornadoes. Low temperatures Thursday night are expected to mostly
be in the 50s.

Friday...

The upper low/trough will lift northeast on Friday with showers and
thunderstorms continuing to be possible (up to near 95%). A marginal
threat of severe storms will remain for Friday, especially across
eastern and northern portions of the area. High temperatures on
Friday will range from the mid 60s to upper 70s. Winds will be gusty
out of the southwest to west on Friday as the upper low passes to
the north of the area. Wind gusts may get to over 40 mph across
portions of the area Friday afternoon.

Friday night through Tuesday night...

Light northwest to north winds will be present Friday night with
lows ranging from the low 40s to low 50s. Another upper trough will
begin moving over the Central Plains on Saturday with highs in the
mid 60s to mid 80s across south central and central Nebraska and
north central Kansas. Rain and storm chances will increase Saturday
evening as the upper trough moves closer to the area. Low
temperatures Saturday night will range from the lower 40s to mid
50s. Rain and storm chances will increase up to 90% Saturday night.
Winds will shift to the north as the upper low/trough moves
overhead. This will allow for cooler temperatures on Sunday with
highs ranging from the mid 50s to upper 60s. Temperatures are
expected to cool into the mid 30s to lower 40s Sunday night under
clearing skies. Temperatures will begin warming on Monday with highs
ranging from the mid 60s to mid 70s under mostly sunny skies. Low
temperatures Monday night are expected to be in the 40s with
southwest winds. The warming trend will continue into Tuesday with
highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s with breezy southwest winds during
the afternoon. Low temperatures Tuesday night are expected to be in
the mid 40s to upper 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Expect significant deteriorations to aviation conditions this
period, particularly during the day today.

Isolated showers early this morning are forecast to increase in
coverage and intensity (to thunderstorms) by around dawn, and
move NW to SE. Appears greatest potential for strong storms and
perhaps some hail will remain S of the terminals. This first
wave should exit by mid to late AM, but in it`s wake, models
show quick lowering of CIGs to MVFR and even IFR by around
midday. Seems quite likely even further deterioration to IFR or
near LIFR will occur during the aftn, and possibly be
accompanied by minor VSBY reductions and drizzle or light rain
showers. The next round of thunderstorms is forecast to develop
during the late evening or overnight Thu, but exact timing and
coverage in the area of the terminals remains uncertain. Thus,
have handled this with a prevailing showers and only VCTS for
thunder. Storms tonight could be severe with mainly a large hail
threat. IFR to LIFR CIGs will likely prevail beyond 06Z Fri.
Confidence: Medium.

Winds will be on the incr out of the SE, becoming brzy around or
shortly after sunrise. Sustained winds of 15-20kt and gusts of
30-35kt are likely for majority of the daytime hrs, and even
into Thu eve. Confidence: High.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Thies