Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
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133 FXUS65 KGJT 301004 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 404 AM MDT Tue Apr 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A system will bring rain showers and mountain snow to the northern half of the CWA this morning. Snow accumulations of 1-3 inches are possible. - Another system brings more precipitation to the area on Wednesday. - Afternoon winds will remain gusty this week, as a series of disturbances along the jet stream impact the region. - A brief cool spell on Thursday in the wake of a cold front will drop temperatures, before things warm back up heading into the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 251 AM MDT Tue Apr 30 2024 A shortwave trough is currently passing just to our north. It has pushed a cold front into the region, which is working through northwest Colorado. There are scattered showers associated with the front, but the rates are mostly light. As this precip moves into the northern mountains rates and amounts increase and elevations above 9 kft could get several inches of snow by late morning. Most of the valleys dry out by sunrise. Elsewhere is looking at partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies and highs similar to yesterday. Gusty winds are also possible given the jets associated with this system. As that jet aloft pivots tomorrow we become positioned under the right entrance region. Therefore we will see another slug of moisture come up from the southwest. The next shortwave drops in from the northwest and brings yet another cold front through the region. That along with the moisture results in scattered showers and storms mainly in the afternoon. The coverage of showers will reach further south than this current system, so south of I-70 included. Highs may be a touch cooler given the extra cloud cover and showers around. The mountains will end up with the highest amounts and snow levels hang near 8-10 kft. Winds increase even more with this second trough so expect gusty winds in general. As typically, showers may promote strong gusts down to the surface. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 251 AM MDT Tue Apr 30 2024 A cold front dives into the region Wednesday night and wraps up a week long cycle of repeated shortwaves rippling around the southern periphery of broad cyclonic flow anchored over the Canadian Provinces. Cold air with this front and a nighttime arrival will allow for a few more inches of snow on the higher peaks of the Central Mountains and northward to the Park Range and Flat Tops. Temperatures will take a 10 degree downward hit on Thursday morning`s lows, as well as the afternoon highs with this front. Breezy conditions in the wake of the front will keep gusty winds on most of our high terrain here on the West Slope throughout the day Thursday. The strongest winds will favor the Divide. A secondary wave reappears Friday with some more precipitation chances for the northern mountains. This one looks brief and likely yields just scattered shower activity. Temperatures also rebound quickly Friday in the gusty southerly flow ahead of the incoming shortwave. A weak transitional ridge quiets things down Saturday and lets temperatures inch up another notch in the next warm up. The warm up precedes a low that models are progging to come ashore somewhere out west Sunday. Given the current solutions, this one could start the work week off with widespread showers Monday morning across the Four Corners and northward...or just glance us from the north and likely deliver a pattern not unlike we`ve seen the past week. Confidence is really low in the outcomes with this storm. For now, a brief cooldown Thursday followed by a warm up heading into the weekend looks like the plan, as spring yo-yo`s back and forth here on the West Slope. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1124 PM MDT Mon Apr 29 2024 A mid level cloud deck with isolated to widely scattered showers is moving across northern portions of Utah and Colorado tonight. ILS cigs may be met at times under this light precipitation but impacts of MVFR or below are not forecast at this time. Winds will increase aloft which will create areas of LLWS as this system works through with some of this wind making to the ground as gusts over 25 mph tomorrow afternoon. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KJS LONG TERM...LTB AVIATION...TGJT