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000
FXUS63 KGLD 220905
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
305 AM MDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near to above average temperatures are forecast for the week.
  There could be daily small chances for rain/storms.

- Near critical fire weather conditions are possible Thursday
  west of a line from Flagler to Cheyenne Wells.

- Chance for severe weather Thursday generally east of Highway
  25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 159 AM MDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Today, warmer temperatures are forecast across the area in the 70`s
and 80`s with continued southerly flow. The 70`s are more likely
along and north of I-70 as satellite observations already show mid
to high could cover moving over the area. Also, the low pressure
system that is forecast to move through the area should be near the
I-70 corridor by the mid afternoon hours. This will shift winds to
out of the north on the backside which will begin to advect in some
cooler temperatures (albeit not very high in magnitude with a few
degree change during the day). The rest of the area will see
temperatures raise to 80 or the mid 80`s as the low and front are
forecast to pass through these areas during the evening hours. RH
along and south of Highway 40 could drop to near 15%, but the
presence of the surface low over the area is forecast to keep winds
from mixing their full potential and just lead to occasional gusts
near 25 mph. In regard to showers and storms, generally dry
conditions are going to keep chances around 15% to 20% from Flagler
to McCook and south where surface convergence along the boundary
could allow some showers and storms to spark. The most likely
scenario is elevated showers that produce virga or very light rain.
If surface dewpoints can begin to reach 45-50F along the front, then
there may be enough instability for some lightning (as MUCAPE would
increase close to 1000 J/KG instead of <250 J/KG). Severe weather is
unlikely (even in an increased CAPE scenario) and looks to only be
possible if the boundary stalls in a west/east orientation, a storm
forms, and has a long residency time on the boundary to form hail.
Any shower or storm that forms should dissipate before midnight as
the low and front are forecast to push south of the area. The rest
of the night would then see skies clear and temperatures lower into
the 30`s and 40`s.

Tomorrow, in the wake of the system and with slightly higher
pressure over the area, temperatures are forecast to be a bit cooler
in the 60`s and 70`s. A mix of clouds and sun is forecast through
the day as 700-500mb moisture is forecast to continue to stream over
the area. During the evening hours, shower and storm chances are
forecast to return as a shortwave moves through the northwest flow
aloft. Precipitation may form over the higher terrain in Eastern
Colorado and move east with the shortwave. The potential showers
could also just be virga with a lack of moisture near the surface
that would also inhibit severe weather.

Wednesday, some slight ridging is forecast to try and move over the
area which may warm temperatures a few degrees compared to Tuesday
with highs generally near or above 70. The bigger change is the
increase in winds as a surface low is forecast to develop in the lee
of the rockies through the day ahead of an advancing upper trough.
Winds are forecast to sustain around 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30
to 40 mph. Critical fire weather is not expected at this time though
as RH is forecast to generally remain above 30% as some moisture
begins to advect in from the south. Will need to watch for a few
showers and storms from the higher terrain in Colorado again, but a
lack of overall synoptic forcing and with the low well to the west,
any precipitation will likely be light and non-impactful.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Thursday...00z GFS/ECMWF/GEM/GEFS models continue to come in line
with one another, advertising a closed 500mb low pressure center
will move into central Colorado from southern Nevada during the day,
continuing northeast into extreme southwest Nebraska overnight.

Modest 6 hour pressure falls of 5 to 11mb are forecast through the
day, supporting southeast to southwest winds gusting 30 to 40 mph in
the afternoon. Overnight, winds veer around to the southwest and
west with gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range on the backside of the low
pressure system.

There will likely be a stratus deck over the area in the morning
(and possibly some fog) as low level moisture is transported into
the area from the south. The 00z GFS/06z NAM are advertising
the stratus to dissipate across the southwest 1/2 of the area by
mid to late afternoon which will identify the position of the
dry line which by 00z Friday will be somewhere in the vicinity
of a line from southwest Yuma county to Tribune, possibly a bit
further east by a row of counties if the GFS verifies. Right
now, there is a 20%-50% chance for showers/thunderstorms east of
Highway 25 in the morning related to a passing weather system.
Similar to 24 hours ago, 20%-40% chances for showers and
thunderstorms exists in the afternoon. We`ll need to refine
exact locations and timing of the storms once the dry line
becomes a bit more clearer. Overnight, pops are rather high
(30%-80%) for showers and thunderstorms, despite a continued
threat for a dry slot in the 850-500mb layer, especially in the
evening before some wraparound precipitation moves into the
northwest corner of the area after midnight. The latest SPC day
4 outlook has backed up the severe weather outlook a bit, likely
due to the further west location of the dryline. Presently,
locations generally east of Highway 25 are now at risk for
severe thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening hours.

High temperatures are currently forecast to be in the lower 70s to
middle 80s, warmest west of the dry line, coolest to the east where
stratus lingers longer. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the
lower 40s to lower 50s.

With the latest forecast showing the dryline further west compared
to 24 hours ago, the threat for near critical fire weather
conditions is now rather narrow and small, confined to areas west of
a line from Flagler to Cheyenne Wells. This will likely change
some in later forecasts.

Friday...as Thursdays storm moves away from the area another low
pressure system dives southeast into Nevada, reinforcing the mean
upper trough near the four corners area.

We`ll have breezy and windy northwest winds during the day in wake
of the departing storm with gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range. Lighter
winds are expected overnight. High temperatures are forecast to be
in the upper 60s to middle 70s, a nice compromise between the
GFS/ECMWF/GEM 850mb temperatures using typical mixing. However, with
a 50 expected wraparound showers/thunderstorms in the 50%-70%
%-70% chance for wraparound showers and thunderstorms
along/north of Interstate 70, lower temperatures are possible.
Further south, pops are in the 20%-40% range and the temperature
forecast there shows a bit more promise. Low temperatures fall
into the upper 30s to middle 40s.

Saturday...this mornings operational GFS/ECMWF/GEFS models all move
the upper trough that was to our west Friday into the Tri-State area
or in its vicinity overnight. If the GFS verifies, we would
primarily be dry-slotted for the period while the ECMWF shows
rather high chances for showers and thunderstorms ahead of and
behind the low pressure system. Presently, we have 20%-60%
chances for showers/thunderstorms during the day and 30%-60%
chances overnight. High temperatures are forecast to be in the
middle 60s to upper 70s which look good when compared to 850mb
temperatures from the GFS/ECMWF models. Low temperatures fall
into the middle 30s to upper 40s.

Sunday...as Saturdays upper trough moves away (speed of which is
uncertain), we`ll continue to have northwest winds gusting in the 25
to 35 mph range during the day. We`ll also continue having 30%-50%
chances for showers and thunderstorms during the day, decreasing to
a 20%-30% chance overnight. High temperatures are forecast to be in
the lower 60s to lower 70s with low temperatures in the middle 30s
to lower 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1030 PM MDT Sun Apr 21 2024

..Below Average Confidence in Wind Speed/Direction on Monday..

VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period at both
terminals.. with cloud cover confined to mid-upper level
ceilings (~12-22 KFT AGL). Isolated to scattered high-based
showers (perhaps a storm) are possible in vicinity of either
terminal Monday afternoon, though.. confidence in convective
development/coverage is low enough to preclude explicit mention
with the 06Z TAF issuance. Southerly winds will increase
overnight into Monday morning as the MSLP gradient tightens in
response to upstream pressure falls /lee cyclone development/ in
Colorado. The aforementioned lee cyclone will extend eastward
into/over western Kansas during the day on Monday.. in the form
of an inverted surface trough extending (roughly) from GLD-ADT-
MCK. Winds at both terminals will highly depend upon the precise
evolution of the cyclone and location/orientation of the
surface trough. As a result, confidence in wind speed and
direction is well below average during the day on Monday.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...BV