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000
FXUS63 KGLD 141655
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1055 AM MDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Red Flag Warning has been issued for locations along the
  Colorado/Kansas border. A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect
  for the rest of area on Monday.

- Monday is forecast to be a multi-hazard day, including
  critical fire weather, blowing dust, and strong to severe
  thunderstorms.

- Strong northwest winds (30-40 kts) Tuesday with gusts around
  50 kts. Blowing dust is also possible for the southwestern
  portion of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 355 AM MDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Today an upper-level ridge will move over the region. This will lead
to mostly clear skies and calmer winds than we have been
experiencing. 850 mb temperatures today top out around 25C in the
western 2/3 of the CWA, suggesting maximum surface temperatures
Ahead of a low pressure system moving over the CWA late Monday, the
high temperatures during the day Monday will be in the 80s to
potentially low 90s. RH values will cause elevated fire weather
concerns, but weak winds will prevent prolonged critical fire
weather conditions. An occasional-isolated gust near 20-25 mph are
possible (35%) during the afternoon, but will be very limited.

Overnight, temperatures will cool into the 40s to low 50s.
Southeasterly 850 mb flow will start to bring in Gulf moisture in
the eastern portions of the area potentially (20% chance) leading to
some scattered stratus.

Ahead of a low pressure system moving through the area overnight
Monday, high temperatures will warm into the 80s to low 90s across
the area. Southwesterly dry air will collide with the southeasterly
flow from the Gulf and cause a dryline to form over the area. The
southwesterly winds will push this line to the east throughout the
day, but how far is the million dollar question. Model guidance
suggests it could set up as far west as the Colorado/Kansas border
or as far east as central Kansas. Locations west of the dryline will
see prolonged critical fire weather conditions. RH values will drop
into the mid-single digits while winds will gust over 30 kts for 3-6
hours. Maximum wind gusts could reach near 40 kts. A Red Flag
Warning has been issued for locations that are most likely (85%+) to
be west of the dryline. Locations to the east could see conditions
similar to this as well, but confidence drops to the east, thus the
Fire Weather Watch is being continued.

Blowing dust will also be a concern Monday afternoon, and confidence
for less than 1 mile visibility in blowing dust is slowly
increasing, currently about 20%. The blowing dust is generally
expected to be along and south of HWY 36 and east of the Colorado
border.

Monday evening/night, the low pressure system will bring a cold
front through the CWA which will start a general cooling trend for
the remainder of the period. The exact timing of the front is still
a bit murky, but the current forecast has the FROPA starting around
1Z Tuesday from the northwest. Precipitation is expected to initiate
with the dryline in the evening, around 0-6Z Tuesday, and move
eastward. The thunderstorms are forecast across the eastern CWA and
SPC has placed a Slight risk for severe storms over locations along
and east of Highway 25. A dryline will setup near the western extent
of the Slight risk and be the trigger for the storms. Later in the
evening, the FROPA will add fuel to the environment and potentially
send the storms into overdrive with additional shear. Soundings from
the NAM-12 and CMC-NH near Hill City, KS show 1700-3000 J/kg of MU
and SFC CAPE with LCLs dropping to well under 1000m near 3-9Z. 0-1
km shear around this time also increases to 20+ kts. Mid-level lapse
rates range from 8.5-9.5 C/km around 0-15Z. These ingredients
suggest a risk of significant hail and potentially tornadic storms
overnight. Climatologically speaking, this is the time of year we
start seeing maximum nocturnal convection. PoPs are highest Tuesday
morning (40-70%) and taper off to the north-northeast through the
afternoon Tuesday. The higher PoPs do not correspond to the highest
severe weather threat. Instead, the increased PoPs are based on more
stratiform rain from wrap-around moisture. Some models are still
showing a strong dry slot moving in and putting a quicker stop to
the precipitation, which could complicate things come Tuesday
afternoon.

Behind the cold front on Tuesday, northwesterly winds are expected
to strengthen. Across the southwestern 1/3 of the CWA, sustained
winds look to be around 30-40 kts with gusts approaching and
exceeding 45-50 kts expected for the most of the Tri-State area.
This could easily become a High Wind day, especially in the
southwestern CWA. Confidence is around 50% for 50+ kts wind gusts
and 40% for sustained winds above 35 kts.

If majority of the CWA sees more than a few hundredths of
precipitation, the strong winds would be the only hazard Tuesday mid-
day and afternoon, after the morning storms. If little to no
precipitation falls, especially in the southwestern CWA, RH values
will drop into the mid to low teens leading to another critical fire
weather day and widespread blowing dust. Confidence for the "dry"
option to occur has increased from 24 hours ago due to the more
pronounced dry-slot, and is now around 25% chance of occurrence.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 125 AM MDT Sun Apr 13 2024

From the latest runs of the GFS/ECMWF, exiting upper low Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning will give way to a weak 500mb ridge
through the day on Wednesday. Both models then carry a closed low
eastward over the extreme northern Plains through Friday into the
beginning of next weekend as it transitions to the northern Great
Lks Region. The wrap-around circulation during this time will bring
a couple shortwaves from the north central Rockies across the CWA.
These clear the Plains region with the two models differing slightly
on the strength of an upper ridge for the latter portion of the
upcoming weekend off the Rockies.

At the surface, eastern areas late tuesday night will see some weak
rw/trw remnants on the back side of the exiting system. Surface
ridge follows from the north on Wednesday, with low pressure
developing over the eastern Rockies through the day, shifting south
and east going into the evening hrs w/ the approach of the ridge
from the north. Weak instability and minimal qpf will create a
chance (30-50%) for light showers and even an isolated thunderstorm,
mainly during the evening hours Wednesday, tapering to light showers
Thursday morning before ending. Best chances will focus on the
northern portions of the CWA, coinciding with the best easterly
upslope flow at the surface and the trajectory of the 500mb
shortwave.

Besides the chances for precipitation, the strong northerly flow
Tuesday night into Wednesday will diminish towards sunrise with
areas seeing strongest flow in the 35-45 mph mainly before 06z.

For Thursday night onward into Saturday, strong surface ridge builds
south from the northern Plains, with low pressure to the south. A
persistent easterly fetch sets up once again. This upslope flow will
enhance low level moisture into the region, allowing for increased
cloud cover. CAA into northern and western locales will allow for p-
type to shift from showers east to a rain/snow shower mix mainly
west of Highway 25. Best qpf will remain over southern locales
closest to the surface low. Elsewhere little to no qpf, and with
ground temps warm, not looking for snow showers to accumulate/be
impactful.

Going into Sunday, surface ridge will roll eastward through the day
allowing for southerly flow to ensue from west to east, providing a
nice day. Any remaining cloud cover from the overnight period
Saturday, will linger mainly in the east under the ridge axis at
least through Sunday morning.

For temps, looking for daytime highs on Wednesday in the 70s, with
highest numbers south of the Interstate. For Thursday into the first
half of the upcoming weekend, 50s area-wide are expected, and for
next Sunday, slightly warmer with a range in the 60s.

Overnight lows Tuesday night will range widely from the mid 30s west
into the mid 40s east. 30s area-wide for Wednesday night, warmest
east of Highway 25. Thursday night through Saturday night, colder
with a range from the upper 20s to the lower 30s. Slightly warmer
next Sunday night with mid to upper 30s expected.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1055 AM MDT Sun Apr 14 2024

KGLD...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A light
northeast wind at taf issuance will veer to the east then
southeast through this afternoon with gusts up to 20kts or so.
Tonight, east-southeast winds of 11-15kts with some gusts are
expected. Monday morning, southeast winds gusting 25 to 30kts
are expected.

KMCK...VFR conditions are currently forecast through the period.
An easterly wind gusting up to 20kts at taf issuance will
continue through 22z, settling to around 11kts tonight. Monday
morning, southeast winds increase with gusts up to 35kts or so.
There will be a chance for stratus to impact the terminal a few
hours either side of 15z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 355 AM MDT Sun Apr 14 2024

For today, elevated fire weather conditions are forecast as
relative humidity again drops into the teens with temperatures in the
80s to low 90s. Limiting factor for critical fire weather remains in
persistence of the winds as gusts generally below 20 mph are
expected.

A Red Flag Warning has been issued for Monday for locations along the
Colorado-Kansas border. A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for
the rest of the area on Monday. Southwest winds gusting up to 45 mph
and minimum humidity values in the single digits will lead to
critical and near critical fire weather conditions. Widespread
extreme to even catastrophic Grassland Fire Danger values are
currently forecast, especially during the afternoon hours. Monday is
also shaping up to be a potential multi-hazard day where critical
fire weather conditions won`t be the only concern. Blowing dust and
associated reductions to visibility could impact response to any
fires. Additionally, there is potential for strong to severe
thunderstorms, mainly in the evening-overnight hours. Isolated dry-
lighting storms cannot be ruled out, especially in locations between
KS Highway 25 and the Colorado border. Lastly, a cold front will
sweep through the area, with current timing of the wind shift from
south-southwest to northwest during the overnight timeframe.

On Tuesday, while RH recovers some post cold front, northwesterly
winds gust 50-60+ mph, resulting in continued concern for fire
weather, especially if there are any ongoing fires. Blowing dust as
well remains a possible hazard.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 355 AM MDT Sun Apr 14 2024

With some locales possibly coming within a few degrees of near
record highs on Sunday, April 14th, here is the list of records
for this day:


Goodland, KS........88F in 2017

McCook, NE..........92F in 1940

Burlington, CO......90F in 2006

Hill City, KS.......94F in 2003

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ to 10 PM MDT /11
    PM CDT/ Monday for KSZ001-013-027-041.
     Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
     for KSZ002>004-014>016-028-029-042.
CO...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 10 PM MDT Monday for COZ252>254.
NE...Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
     for NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...
CLIMATE...