000
FXUS63 KGLD 260926
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
326 AM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winds will shift to the NW and increase to 30-40 mph this
  afternoon. This may create hazardous travel conditions,
  especially for high profile vehicles. This includes the
  Interstate 70 corridor in eastern Colorado and far northwest
  Kansas.

- There is a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms Saturday
  afternoon and evening. Hazards similar to what the area
  received in the past 24 hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 317 AM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Across the Tri State region this morning, skies remain cloudy as a
slow moving low pressure system continues to impact the area. There
are some light scattered showers still over extreme eastern areas
from yesterday round of severe wx. Temperatures as of 200 AM MDT are
ranging widely from the upper 40s to the lower 50s west into the 50s
and 60s east. The position of the low is allowing for winds to range
mainly southerly along/east of Highway 25, and northerly west of
there. This wind regime is impacting the current range in temps over
the area.

Going into today and through the upcoming weekend, the main wx
concerns will focus on some exiting showers and thunderstorms today
from the slow exiting system, another round of severe wx for
Saturday afternoon and evening for much of the CWA, with tapering
precip to end off the weekend.

For Today/Tonight: the latest CAMs (NamNest, HRRR and RAP) all show
a round of precipitation initiating through the day as the low over
western Kansas lifts northeast. The latest RAP40 500mb analysis is
showing an open wave which will lift in tandem with the surface
feature, creating increased chances for precip. A strong amplified
upper ridge over the east is the reason for the slow exit of this
system. Based on model guidance, the best chances/pops(40-60%) will
occur north of the Interstate. Weak DCape/MUCape suggest some
thunder is possible, at least during the afternoon hours. As the low
lifts out, the wrap-around gradient on the back side could bring
gusts into the 30-40 mph range before tapering going into Saturday
morning.

For this weekend: another surface low will form in the wake of the
current exiting system during the day Saturday. A closed low at
500mb will accompany this surface feature Saturday
afternoon/evening. With high pressure blocking both lows to the
east, the weekend system will take a close track to the one
currently leaving. Conditions are expected to drop considerably by
the afternoon as storms develop along and north of the front
ahead/east of the low. MUCape/DCape in the 500-1000j/kg range, 0-3km
EHI showing enhancement along/north of the front is going to allow
for strong to even severe storms to develop. Currently, SPC has a
Slight Risk for severe wx with all hazards in play(similar to the
past 24 hours). High localized PW values could also bring about
localized heavy rainfall and combined with rain already fallen,
could pose some hydro issues and will have to be monitored. The bulk
of the precip is expected to taper Saturday night into Sunday
morning w/ a slow clearing from south to north as the low exits
north.

For temps, highs today will range widely from mainly the 60s north
of the Interstate and 70s mainly south. Highs will be dependent on
how fast the current low pressure system lifts out of the
area/clouds clear from south to north.

Going into this weekend, a low pressure system and associated front
on Saturday will provide another wide range with areas west of a
line from Flagler, Colorado to Goodland, Kansas up to Culbertson,
Nebraska in the 50s and 60s. East of there, mainly 70s. Numbers will
be highly dependent on extent of cloud cover/storms. Cooler to end
off the weekend with a range on Sunday in upper 50s to lower 60s
west, into the mid 60s south and east.

Overnight lows tonight will range from the upper 30s to lower 40s
west into the mid 40s east, especially east of Highway 25. Temps
trend slightly lower into the weekend with upper 30s to mid 40s
Saturday night, coldest areas along/west of Highway 27. Sunday
night, mainly upper 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 128 AM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024

From the latest GFS/ECMWF, there will be a general zonal flow aloft
at 500mb at least for the Monday/Tuesday timeframe. Going into
Wednesday, a strong shortwave works out of the north central Rockies
into the Plains region now of the CWA. The low does exit slowly
towards the Great Lks region for Thursday and Friday. This will give
way mixed guidance with the GFS setting up NW flow aloft and
eventually amplified ridging for the end of the week. The ECMWF
keeps zonal flow over the area, with the Great Lks low pushing
slowly towards the east coast, allowing for the passage of a weak
shortwave Fri/Sat.

At the surface, lee-side troughing along the eastern slopes of the
Rockies will help to enhance precipitation chances for the midweek
system. Best dynamics will remain with the upper low north of the
CWA. Overall, will see some increased cloud cover mainly north
Mon/Tue, with the lee-side trough forming a low at its base, and
pushing into southwest Kansas. Easterly, upslope moist flow sets up
over the area in time for the shortwave passage to our north,
triggering chances(20-30%) for rw/trw. GFS PW values for the end of
the week convection will range from 0.50"-1.00". Highest chances
will be east of Highway 25. These chances are enhanced for Thu/Fri
to keep areal coverage for rw/trw similar to the Wednesday chances.
Both models do show a strong ridge building off the north central
Rockies in time for clearing going into next weekend.

For temps, highs on Monday will range in the 70s. Slightly warmer
Tuesday and Wednesday, with mid 70s to lower 80s expected. Cooler
air returns for the day Thursday with upper 60s to mid 70s for
highs, and for next Friday, mid to upper 70s are expected.

Overnight lows Monday night will range from the lower 40s west to
around 50F east. For Tuesday and Wednesday nights, 40s are expected
with warmest areas east of Highway 25. Mid 40s for Thursday night
will give way to a range on Friday night in the upper 40s to lower
50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1040 PM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Adverse aviation conditions associated with occasional
showers/storms, low ceilings and fog are anticipated at both
terminals overnight.. with the relative greatest potential for
thunderstorms at the MCK terminal. Ceilings will gradually
improve to MVFR and VFR late Friday morning and early Friday
afternoon. Low confidence in wind speed/direction overnight
(winds may largely be variable).. as a lee cyclone in Colorado
progresses eastward over western Kansas. Winds will shift to the
W around or shortly after sunrise Friday morning, further
shifting to the NW and strengthening to 30-40 knots Friday
afternoon (~20-30 knots at MCK).. as the MSLP gradient tightens
on the W and SW periphery of the deepening lee cyclone (tracking
northeastward into Nebraska during the day). Winds will weaken
AOA sunset Friday evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 323 AM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024

With the rainfall received over the region in the past 24
hours, and what is expected from showers and storms today and
this weekend, we will be monitoring those areas already prone
from recent rains. With some locales receiving 1-2" already and
the potential for another localized 1-2" in spots already
hit, hydro concerns could crop up concerning localized
flooding.

There are currently no Flood products issued/in effect.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...BV
HYDROLOGY...JN