Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 270512
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
112 AM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty Showers and Storms Ending this Evening

- Dry/Cool to End The Workweek

- Multiple Chances For Precipitation As March Ends

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 333 PM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

- Gusty Showers and Storms Ending this Evening

Still closely monitoring the lines/bands of convection moving
north through the area for any local bursts of damaging winds
and/or spin ups. 0-3KM MLCape has been around 125 J/KG with around
50 kts of 0-3KM shear, which are both impressive but limiting
factor may be that the convection has been generally paralleling
the shear vectors.

Sfc dew pts are lower (in the mid 40s) farther east so those low
level cape values should be on the decrease. However this drier
air will also contribute to Downdraft Cape values near 500 J/KG
around LAN and JXN which may support some locally stronger gusts
as the skinny line congeals.

Convection/narrow cold frontal rain band feature clears the area
to the east by 7 PM then the colder air rushes in in behind the
cold front. Lows dipping down to near freezing tonight.

- Dry/Cool to End The Workweek

Low strato-cu clouds lingering much of Wednesday due to cold
cyclonic flow but some clearing arriving by late in the day as
sfc ridging starts to nudge in. Quite chilly with highs struggling
to reach 40 degrees.

Better prospects for sunny skies on Thursday per ensemble cloud
fcsts as dew points continue to lower in very dry air mass--
despite lingering troughing and cold air aloft. The trough and
colder air lift out on Friday allowing temps to moderate to
closer to normal highs near 50, with some increase in mid/high
cloud late in the day.


- Multiple Chances For Precipitation As March Ends

The weekend into the first part of next week will feature a mainly
zonal 500mb pattern with a mid-level baroclinic zone not far to the
north. Ensemble guidance suggests a few chances of precipitation
centered around the Saturday Morning, and Sunday Night - Tuesday
timeframes as surface lows move through the Central Great Lakes.
However, as is not uncommon in the extended range and especially in
a zonal flow pattern, exact details remain uncertain as to timing
and amounts. A high pressure system in the Hudson Bay region and
associated northerly component to the flow pattern brings the
potential of snow showers mixing in across Central Michigan near
peak overnight cooling, with some freezing rain even a small
possibility. The zonal pattern also keeps temperatures generally
consistent in the upper 40s to near 50s through the weekend and
into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 112 AM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Sub fuel-alternate MVFR cigs are ongoing across all of West
Michigan and will persist through early afternoon Wednesday. By
late afternoon, all sites will reach VFR conditions as low-level
moisture pulls away, with VFR continuing through the remainder of
the TAF period. West- southwest winds of 10-15 knots, with gusts
to 25 knots at times, persist through the day Wednesday before
subsiding to 5-10 knots after 00z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 939 PM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Dropped the Gale Warning based on current wind gusts at 25 to 30
knots at the buoys. A SCA through 12Z Thursday replaces it.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Meade
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...Ostuno


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